<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141144/636d00c69c7e80680e0a35f6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1530" height="1018"/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s political headlines these days are mainly about the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/old-wine-in-old-bottle-in-nepal-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rift between K P Oli and Madhav Kumar Nepal </a>that split Nepal’s largest party, the UML. Somewhat sidelined is the role of Maoist chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who has been the behind-the-scenes operator.Dahal went under the nom de guerre Prachanda (‘Fierce One’) during the insurgency, was elected prime minister in 2008, and resigned after trying to replace the Nepal Army Chief. He himself is the first to admit that peacetime politics is not easy.Last month, he confessed to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/who-gets-what/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">being under “tremendous stress”</a> because most of the 49 MPs of his Maoist Centre party wanted to be ministers in the coalition government. He added that politics in Nepal does not move in a linear fashion, but has a tendency to go off on an unpredictable tangent.“I have learnt a lesson that you cannot win if you try to manipulate others too much,” he told a party meeting in April in Chitwan.As he warms up to a theme, Dahal is prone to making such self-deprecating comments that are embarrassing or even damaging to himself. After the ceasefire in 2006, he was caught on video boasting to Maoist cadre that he had tricked the United Nations into believing his highly inflated figure for militia strength to bloat the budget for cantonments.His remarks in Chitwan in April were about how he infiltrated the UML by uniting his Maoist party with it, and the goal was to ultimately take over the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN). This was the first time he publicly admitted the real reason he agreed with Oli to unite their parties.In fact, divide-and-rule has long been Dahal’s way to gain and maintain power both during the conflict, after the ceasefire in democratic politics, and right up to backing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/deuba-5/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress (NC) for prime ministership</a> earlier this year.Dahal and Oli took a bold decision with the Maoist-UML electoral alliance and unity in 2018 to form a strong two-thirds majority government. At first, the two were best buddies. But things started turning sour when Dahal suspected that Oli had no intention to hand over prime ministership half-way through the government’s term as per their “gentlemen’s agreement”.Since Oli was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/making-up-is-hard-to-do/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">not on good terms with Madhav Kumar Nepal</a> and Bamdev Gautam, Dahal found an opening. Oli knew what Dahal was up to, and was also trying to outwit Dahal by using all kinds of tricks to stay on in power — including dissolving the Lower House in December 2020.After the Supreme Court reinstated the House, and Oli was on the back foot, Dahal formed an alliance with dissident UML members, the NC and the JSP to gather the numbers to unseat Oli.The end result was not just the disintegration of the CPN, but also the split in the UML with Madhav Nepal ultimately forming his own party, CPN (United Socialist) last month.The five party alliance is having <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/what-is-delaying-nepal-cabinet-expansion/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">difficulty expanding the Cabinet</a>, but Dahal is at the meetings negotiating portfolios to divide up the spoils.All these machiavellian moves have resulted in a peculiar political outcome —  the largest party in Parliament is now in the opposition and a weak opposition NC is leading the government.Dahal steered his former underground party to electoral victory in the first Constituent Assembly election in 2008, but lost in 2013. But even then, Dahal was trying to drive a wedge in the NC-UML coalition by supporting Oli’s candidature for prime ministership against the NC.He fell out with Oli and helped bring him down to form a coalition with the NC with an agreement to rotate government leadership with Deuba, and became prime minister for the second time. However, he soon ditched Deuba and formed the electoral alliance with Oli and the UML for the 2017 polls.All this behind the scenes skulduggery was not new to Dahal. What is new is that he now publicly admits that it does not work.This is the same Dahal who as a powerful post-conflict prime minister in 2009 sacked Nepal Army chief Gen Rukmangud Katuwal and replaced him with Gen Kul Bahadur Khadka. Dahal’s intention then was to divide and capture the Nepal Army which he had fought against as a guerrilla commander. But the move backfired, Dahal had to resign after only nine months as prime minister, and he and his party had to wait long years to stage a political comeback.He was succeeded by Madhav Kumar Nepal as prime minister, but Dahal was up to his old tricks and deposed Nepal by lending his party’s support to Jhalnath Khanal that brought an open rift in the UML. Distrust was growing within the Maoists about Dahal’s ways, and after facing a mutiny from Baburam Bhattarai, Mohan Baidya and Narayankaji Shrestha in 2011, he dumped Khanal and replaced him with Bhattarai.It is the story of Nepal that the same politicians play musical chairs, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/deubas-denouement/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">becoming prime minister multiple times</a>, and remaining in party leadership for life. For the past 30 years: the same names are in the headlines: Deuba, Nepal, Oli, Dahal, Bhattarai, Gautam, Khanal.“Dahal’s character is to aspire to be a singular and powerful Communist leader, that is why he sacrificed so many lives during the conflict, for him the end justifies the means,” explains political scientist Mahadev Sah. “He does not have any affinity for democracy. It is all about power, and how to attain and retain it.”Pushpa Kamal Dahal is still Prachanda. In 2007, he had told his former guerrillas in Chitwan’s Shaktikhor camp: “During the war we machine gunned our enemies, now we sit around a table and sip tea with them. The method may be different, but the goal is the same.”Today, Dahal’s role has been to handle the same personalities he once waged an armed struggle against, and after the war manipulated from behind the scenes. While undermining Oli for the past two years, he let Nepal do most of the talking. Now, he allows Deuba to be out front.  But his own party is now so weakened that it needs alliances to win elections.The leader of the Marxist-Leninist wing of the Nepal Communist Party C P Mainali knows Dahal well, and says he has let so many people down along the way that it has become a habit, and the only way he knows how to do politics.“He is used to working in the shadows, orchestrating things from behind, he cannot operate in the open, with transparency,” Mainali says. “What he says and what he does have always been completely different."This is true not just in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-post-breakup-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">domestic politics</a>, but in Dahal’s dealings with leaders of neighbouring India and China, while in or out of power. He commented openly about his domestic political travails while abroad in controversial interviews. Or, he often boasted about support from leaders in Beijing or Delhi to bolster his domestic standing. In June, he said Delhi would be “comfortable” with him becoming prime minister again.After failing in his objective to capture the CPN, Dahal is now intent on being the foremost Communist leader in Nepal. He used Madhav Nepal and Khanal to depose Oli, and weaken the UML. So far, it is to Dahal’s credit and political instincts that his strategy has met with success.Dahal’s charm offensive seems to have worked on Nepal, who finds the Maoist leader a lot more trustworthy than Oli. It would not be surprising if the United Socialists and the Maoists combine forces in the 2023 elections.What Dahal is doing now is no different than what he was doing as Prachanda during the insurgency. Sometimes he cosied up to Mohan Baidya against Baburam Bhattarai, and at other times he won over Bhattarai to sideline Baidya.C P Mainali says: “That is always how he operated, to use one comrade against another, and keep himself as a key player.”Dahal has his eyes fixed on 2023, and is willing to revive the electoral cooperation that won his party 54 seats in local elections in 2017. But Mahadev Sah does not see that as likely. He says: “The Maoists could not remain united with the UML, so it is difficult to believe that an alliance with the Congress will stick. It may help Dahal exact revenge on Oli, but in fact, it may even be counterproductive to both parties and a loss of face for the Maoists.”

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Pushpa Kamal Dahal is still Prachanda

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141136/636cfe6b9c7e80680e0a0c3ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1260" height="686"/>Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba took office over a month ago, but aside from six ministers he has not been able to set up a full Cabinet yet because of the need to balance the demands of coalition partners.This is despite the need to have all hands on deck to tackle the health and economic emergency caused by the Covid-19 crisis. The delay cannot just be attributed to the recently registered CPN (United Socialist) led by Madhav Kumar Nepal whose critical dissident votes forced the K P Oli government to step down in July and paved the way for Deuba to become prime minister for the fifth time.It appears that the delay has more to do with the competing g demands within other members of the five-party alliance, including Deuba’s own Nepali Congress, the Maoist Centre and the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP).Both Prime Minister Deuba and CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal had claimed that the Cabinet would be expanded as soon as CPN-UML’s senior leader Madhav Kumar Nepal’s new party (United Socialist) was officially registered. Yet, even after being recognised by the Election Commission on August 25, Cabinet expansion has not happened.Deuba has not been able to decide the next ministers from his own party, and because of the upcoming party general convention he wants to reward loyalists. So far he has appointed his trusted aides Bal Krishna Khand as Home Minister, Gyanendra Bahadur Karki as Minister for Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs, and Umesh Shrestha as Minister of State for Health.Deuba has announced his own candidacy for NC resident in the party’s next general convention which is scheduled for November. Deuba may be trying to decide on distributing ministerial portfolios to either reward loyal party members or buy the loyalty of dissidents.So far, Deuba wants to appoint only those who have expressed their support for his re-election with ministerships. But he may find that he will have to compromise and take in key figures from the Bimalendra Nidhi and Ram Chandra Poudel factions so they will vote for his party presidency.Another reason for the delay comes from the Maoist Center. Currently, former guerrilla commander Janardan Sharma has been appointed Finance Minister and Pampha Bhusal has been made the Energy, Water Resources, and Irrigation minister. Both are close to party president Pushpa Kamal Dahal.Dahal himself publicly admitted last month that he was finding it difficult to select from his 49 Maoist MPs aspirants for ministerships. He said: “At most, we will be given only 7 portfolios. It has now become common practice to criticise the party if one is not made minister. I am under immense stress from all the demands. I wish I was able to make all 49 members ministers.”Within the Maoist Centre, voices have been raised that leaders from the Ekta Kendra and the CPN (United Socialist), who have been with the Maoists since the war and integrated with the Maoists after the peace process, should be included in the government.Even the JSP has split, and not been able to finalise the names of those who will join the government. Unable to strike a Mountain-Tarai balance, the Rastriya Janata Party led by Mahanta Thakur has been unable to finalise names either. The other member of the alliance, Rastriya Janamorcha, which has only one MP in Parliament has already announced that it will not participate in the government.Deuba has not forgotten the role Madhav Nepal’s CPN (United played in getting him to office and apparently wants to reward it with 5-7 portfolios. And it could be that Nepal will also need time to decide on a list of ministers to give Deuba.  Translated by Aryan Sitaula from the Nepali language original in Himal Khabar: <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/125640" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/125640&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1630376494617000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHzH53P7H76MS467An-uvZMV9i_UQ">https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/125640</a>

What is delaying Nepal cabinet expansion?

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121152/636b94b49c7e80680e06f218jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1644" height="912"/><figcaption>The then chief of the NCP’s Foreign Affairs Department Madhav Kumar Nepal signed an MoU with the Chief of International Liaison Department of CPC Song Tao to formally establish fraternal relations between the two communist parties in September 2019. Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Prime Minister K P Oli look on.</figcaption></figure>On 1 July 2021, Beijing will be marking the centennial of the establishment of the Communist Party of China (CPC) amidst signs that cooperation with Nepal’s communist parties may gain momentum in future.While China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs handles state-to-state relations, the International Department of the CPC manages relationships with fraternal parties in other countries, and there have been some high profile interactions with Nepal’s communist parties.There had been a record of <a href="https://docs.aiddata.org/ad4/pdfs/Silk_Road_Diplomacy_Report.pdf" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://docs.aiddata.org/ad4/pdfs/Silk_Road_Diplomacy_Report.pdf&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624955244648000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEK6hVu5OvbEqJuBpWEibpiE5N0aw">114 political visits and 15 party exchanges</a> between Chinese and Nepali communist leaders between 2000-2017, the highest number among any country in South and Central Asia. After Nepal signed the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/bri-and-trans-himalayan-connectivity/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/bri-and-trans-himalayan-connectivity/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624955244648000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGZUkW821vTo1iK-6jvwGytHRAVzg">Belt Road Initiative (BRI)</a> pact in 2017, the level of exchanges became even more visible.China had made no secret of preferring to deal with a single communist party in Nepal, and is thought to have encouraged the formation of the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/nepali-times-search/?q=Dahal+oli" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/nepali-times-search/?q%3DDahal%2Boli&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624955244648000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGTSclwn4ND8Zi2RhFMjwNFGilyDg">uniting the UML and the Maoist-Centre</a> in 2018, and the formation of a strong majority government.And when a power struggle between Prime Minister K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal threatened the NCP’s unity last year, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/nepali-times-search/?q=hou+yanqi" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/nepali-times-search/?q%3Dhou%2Byanqi&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624955244648000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGfo5fcvq_YXCL0ItGaTVhUB8D_CQ">Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Hour Yanqi</a> actively, and quite openly, lobbied to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/nepali-times-search/?q=Dahal+oli" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/nepali-times-search/?q%3DDahal%2Boli&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624955244648000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGTSclwn4ND8Zi2RhFMjwNFGilyDg">prevent a break-up.</a>The two ruling parties, NCP and the CPC,<a href="https://thehimalayantimes.com/kathmandu/mou-signed-between-ncp-ncp-and-cpc-establishing-bilateral-ties" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://thehimalayantimes.com/kathmandu/mou-signed-between-ncp-ncp-and-cpc-establishing-bilateral-ties&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624955244648000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHhX27IGuTa6cxE1CEGaQKl5qiYTQ"> signed an MoU in 2019</a> to establish fraternal relations, and this allowed smoother high-level exchanges and visits. Prior to President Xi’s official visit to Nepal in October 2019, the CPC conducted a session on ‘Xi Jinping thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics’ for 200 NCP leaders in Kathmandu.This raised eyebrows because it was a direct display of preference by one country’s ruling party to the ruling party in a neighbouring country, ignoring other political parties like the opposition Nepali Congress, with which the NCP only possesses a ‘sisterhood’ relationship.This visibility is the result of an increased level of engagement for sustaining Sino-Nepal cooperation. With both CPC and NCP (till recently) being ruling parties, the party-to-party relationship helped to leverage dialogue with influential political actors that can be decisive in matters of economic cooperation and in geostrategic considerations.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121152/636b94b79c7e80680e06f219jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1402" height="760"><figcaption>Prior to President Xi’s official visit to Nepal in October 2019, the CPC conducted a session on ‘Xi Jinping thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics’ for 200 NCP leaders in Kathmandu.</figcaption></figure>China <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-11/07/c_138535703.htm" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-11/07/c_138535703.htm&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624955244648000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG02E3gjkKSkPBoDyHazKH_W1ZVKw">remains</a> Nepal’s main partner in foreign direct investment, and opening up new markets for Chinese goods is an important economic agenda to help keep its <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/protect-the-party-chinas-growing-influence-in-the-developing-world/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.brookings.edu/articles/protect-the-party-chinas-growing-influence-in-the-developing-world/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624955244648000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGn-aZXV3_FMO838WpahfQTWFLqgg">indebted state-owned enterprises (SOEs) afloat.</a>On the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the CPC, Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal  <a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Urgrb-7nOw4XhJmSUh6XtQ" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Urgrb-7nOw4XhJmSUh6XtQ&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624955244648000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGiadTzq5ZmN9Svr5nCKU9MRYCZ7g">recently penned an article</a> for World Socialism Studies (世界社会主义研究) WeChat page highlighting party-to-party relations between Nepal and China as an important factor ‘to coordinate development strategies of two countries, promote and facilitate the launch of major infrastructure projects’.At the same time, <a href="https://kathmandupost.com/national/2020/12/27/chinese-vice-minister-arrives-on-a-four-day-visit-to-assess-the-political-situation-in-nepal" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://kathmandupost.com/national/2020/12/27/chinese-vice-minister-arrives-on-a-four-day-visit-to-assess-the-political-situation-in-nepal&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624955244649000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH4wCZerD85xtNypimWisfQQrkGwg">high-level CPC visits </a>to help NCP to settle its internal dispute last year showed China’s strong preference for the ruling party’s stability.  This not only has strengthened party ties, but also removed constraints due to diplomatic protocol – serving as a ‘fast track’ for CPC leaders to promote its economic interests in Nepal.The CPC and NCP tie-up, although being party-to-party, therefore formed an integral part of larger bilateral ties between two countries. This is despite the CPC mandating contact with non-Communist parties as well, and fostering good working relations with all parties.After training NCP leaders on Xi Jinping Thought, China held a virtual conference with Nepal’s major parties for the first time in October 2020. Unlike the CPC-NCP ideology training, the session was mostly to ‘seek commitment from Nepali political parties’ on the Trans-Himalaya Multidimensional Connectivity Network.Similarly, a <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/asiapacific/2021-05/27/c_139971509.htm" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/asiapacific/2021-05/27/c_139971509.htm&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624955244649000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG0MofYYG-vGI-TR7k4mLvHRz99og">virtual meeting</a> hosted by the CPC International Department in May on jointly combatting Covid-19 <a href="https://www.toutiao.com/i6966916194880356901/?tt_from=weixin&amp;utm_campaign=client_share&amp;wxshare_count=1&amp;timestamp=1622654934&amp;app=news_article&amp;utm_source=weixin&amp;utm_medium=toutiao_ios&amp;use_new_style=1&amp;req_id=2021060301285401021207009730193670&amp;share_token=86CEF9EC-B88A-4A1B-87D6-E0301D19C21F&amp;group_id=6966916194880356901" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.toutiao.com/i6966916194880356901/?tt_from%3Dweixin%26utm_campaign%3Dclient_share%26wxshare_count%3D1%26timestamp%3D1622654934%26app%3Dnews_article%26utm_source%3Dweixin%26utm_medium%3Dtoutiao_ios%26use_new_style%3D1%26req_id%3D2021060301285401021207009730193670%26share_token%3D86CEF9EC-B88A-4A1B-87D6-E0301D19C21F%26group_id%3D6966916194880356901&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624955244649000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHvfS50dq7PR10qB1QiwtS3eC_3AA">through inter-party channels</a> preceded China’s announcement of a further grant of 1 million doses. That meeting included leaders of both the UML and Maoist Centre, the Nepali Congress, the Janata Samajbadi Party, and others.The CCP started as a small meeting between 53 students and journalists in the French quarter of Shanghai in 1921, and 100 years later has gone on to become the most dominant political party in the world.The transition from a revolutionary party to a ruling party, then the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1949, and now its emergence as a world economic power has been shepherded by the CCP and leaders like Mao and Deng Xiaoping.With more than 90 million members, the CPC remains the absolute power and is at the center of all Chinese politics and economy. The party <a href="https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/ref/college/coll-china-politics-002.html" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/ref/college/coll-china-politics-002.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624955244649000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFSgHkU_0NvjkWSzvy8IxFIhBuiCg">controls and coordinates</a> all aspects of government, its people’s congress, and foreign affairs matters.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121152/636b94ba9c7e80680e06f21ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1346" height="752"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121152/636b94bd9c7e80680e06f21bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1818" height="1042"><figcaption>CPC officials and leaders of various political parties in Nepal held a joint virtual consultation on fighting against the Covid-19 pandemic on 26 May. Source: TOUTIAO</figcaption></figure>Past record shows that the CPC remains very selective in choosing its partners and seeks to enhance relations with parties <a href="https://watermark.silverchair.com/sqaa028.pdf?token=AQECAHi208BE49Ooan9kkhW_Ercy7Dm3ZL_9Cf3qfKAc485ysgAAApowggKWBgkqhkiG9w0BBwagggKHMIICgwIBADCCAnwGCSqGSIb3DQEHATAeBglghkgBZQMEAS4wEQQMAyoSXFAENeE7Fc-1AgEQgIICTZ7GucTUBIfh6QToRlv0zmopkh10aCm1Ynt6JeNBbkyeW0sgZ5RD3vBfE6800WjJHaAPebtC_oeZOFym4zAK32Xql3pMHYPzsKcgdCjZBH0YjTD_Wjajh2hVlsRUUVOHED-wZ7DiTnPTAcjAerwNvxFoov-1c7TvKJtamq6tBcNX5TVYcaOG4WkyB8P6Igxrld2fsAAiEGTazP6dt6eNGwAH-hVrumHu1kJXbR4t21HBBsb9Je9sxsJQViC-qHK6XFU7ZB5J2Uy4Y95ZfMYHVambD9MND04Q7laHGH7LxxICg_vhh-B-WoMz-OW9SnQcDKNnecyHAneWxGar4FF-3lVZDXFMh1mL2WTZ5oVpds-hk77IyzuphwhJonZIWg3B4wUk1Qs35zIStlSLqZMgEx10U2-jP0x76UsPuTbf2Gjw1f34Qq151O4_NAjcRuz9Ssc0GpjQDeIRaiORxRb8p-MA02zjgNaaKqOnWFpVGmFhwqF1TUzZPn2qZXmFdKKJBCG1OPezN87IIDuXj2UFGBFIVwmrfoRjfeveakwvGrxp1RDW6OrViCLUCzknHuxiIqBc3AfVALSEZFFPAVPbu0pUNiTXqN4A-6VugGz84I6JfsUypH9ICvqHeoq1Ndm5TN278ewF5cOVFZzUGQH-S5m73EO7x56TBMmMQaqLCRdgBxCJ1CixuDUJhQIre7wqG4Qs1h4LogcWAYFv5O4N7m-1mzfsRdN7QEJ3TC4KPzgV0pqHPl6x0cm2HkuilvZeNFCfXFvfNK0sGd6wEaU" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://watermark.silverchair.com/sqaa028.pdf?token%3DAQECAHi208BE49Ooan9kkhW_Ercy7Dm3ZL_9Cf3qfKAc485ysgAAApowggKWBgkqhkiG9w0BBwagggKHMIICgwIBADCCAnwGCSqGSIb3DQEHATAeBglghkgBZQMEAS4wEQQMAyoSXFAENeE7Fc-1AgEQgIICTZ7GucTUBIfh6QToRlv0zmopkh10aCm1Ynt6JeNBbkyeW0sgZ5RD3vBfE6800WjJHaAPebtC_oeZOFym4zAK32Xql3pMHYPzsKcgdCjZBH0YjTD_Wjajh2hVlsRUUVOHED-wZ7DiTnPTAcjAerwNvxFoov-1c7TvKJtamq6tBcNX5TVYcaOG4WkyB8P6Igxrld2fsAAiEGTazP6dt6eNGwAH-hVrumHu1kJXbR4t21HBBsb9Je9sxsJQViC-qHK6XFU7ZB5J2Uy4Y95ZfMYHVambD9MND04Q7laHGH7LxxICg_vhh-B-WoMz-OW9SnQcDKNnecyHAneWxGar4FF-3lVZDXFMh1mL2WTZ5oVpds-hk77IyzuphwhJonZIWg3B4wUk1Qs35zIStlSLqZMgEx10U2-jP0x76UsPuTbf2Gjw1f34Qq151O4_NAjcRuz9Ssc0GpjQDeIRaiORxRb8p-MA02zjgNaaKqOnWFpVGmFhwqF1TUzZPn2qZXmFdKKJBCG1OPezN87IIDuXj2UFGBFIVwmrfoRjfeveakwvGrxp1RDW6OrViCLUCzknHuxiIqBc3AfVALSEZFFPAVPbu0pUNiTXqN4A-6VugGz84I6JfsUypH9ICvqHeoq1Ndm5TN278ewF5cOVFZzUGQH-S5m73EO7x56TBMmMQaqLCRdgBxCJ1CixuDUJhQIre7wqG4Qs1h4LogcWAYFv5O4N7m-1mzfsRdN7QEJ3TC4KPzgV0pqHPl6x0cm2HkuilvZeNFCfXFvfNK0sGd6wEaU&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624955244649000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGOQ3tTXN8YXiEKydX3oM4j0-tSuQ">‘who have been in power in the past or can be expected to attain power in the future’. </a> The important takeaway from such engagements is that it allows the CPC, in particular, to shield itself against worldwide criticisms by garnering support through its party-to-party relations.Following Deng Xiaoping’s mandate of ‘uniting our friends and isolating and attacking our enemies’, the CPC seeks constant support and friendship among its party-to-party networks and also is quick to lash out against its ‘enemies’ when it needs to.In 2007, David Shambaugh in his often quoted article on ‘Quiet Diplomacy’ <a href="https://go.gale.com/ps/anonymous?id=GALE%7CA166351069&amp;sid=googleScholar&amp;v=2.1&amp;it=r&amp;linkaccess=abs&amp;issn=02197472&amp;p=AONE&amp;sw=w" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://go.gale.com/ps/anonymous?id%3DGALE%257CA166351069%26sid%3DgoogleScholar%26v%3D2.1%26it%3Dr%26linkaccess%3Dabs%26issn%3D02197472%26p%3DAONE%26sw%3Dw&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624955244649000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHRmVSlZhKjLVOQPArwBLG3Ft-rEQ">had argued</a> that the CPC’s relation with foreign parties was mostly to learn from advanced democracies, while power politics and propaganda was considered supplementary.But modern China is now stronger than it has ever been in history, and hence the reverse is more plausible. Elite party-to-party relations have become an integral component of the CPC’s foreign policy.Recently, President Xi Jinping replied to a friendly letter from foreign students at Peking University urging them to ‘understand the Chinese Communist Party in order to understand China today’. As the CPC celebrates its 100th anniversary, we can only infer that there will be further efforts to deepen party-to-party relations and exchanges in future.Inter-party relations will remain pivotal in sustaining overall Sino-Nepal relations, and could help Nepal in taking forward economic cooperation that Nepal desperately needs. Political leaders of all parties in Nepal, on the other hand, need to keep the national interest paramount and maintain a balanced relationship.Aneka Rebecca Rajbhandari is an undergraduate student in political science and  Raunab Singh Khatri is a Yenching scholar in China studies at Peking University.

One party, two countries?

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b92139c7e80680e06f12ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="694"/><figcaption>Illustration: Diwakar Chettri</figcaption></figure>If anyone had wanted to dismantle Nepal’s Communist movement, no one would have been able to do a better job than Prime Minister K P Oli of the Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) party. How did that happen? It may be necessary to recap the story so far.Halfway through his term, after the constitutional ban on voting a government out of office expired last year, Oli’s arch-rival within the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) Pushpa Kamal Dahal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-communists-on-verge-of-split-again/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-communists-on-verge-of-split-again/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGQW8YHsCRwMrIBjRqyMdwNXEmgjw">started trying to unseat him</a> either from the government or party, and then from both.Disgruntled by Oli’s moves to sideline them, Madhav Kumar Nepal and Jhalnath Khanal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/let-them-eat-cake/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/let-them-eat-cake/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH6eQuDm2Pbgt9hUb7WOuFLGvmpmw">sided with Dahal.</a> Increasingly isolated, and getting wind of a no-confidence vote, Oli <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/i-had-no-other-option-pm-oli/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/i-had-no-other-option-pm-oli/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHsDEWGjDIxOjTlO8qURjT77_0OUA">dissolved the Lower House</a> on 20 December. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-supreme-court-restores-house/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-supreme-court-restores-house/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEwvmBpTOZAsCsPIFmPxHZirJeKtg">Supreme Court restored it</a> two months later, but also <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/no-winners-in-latest-nepal-political-twist/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/no-winners-in-latest-nepal-political-twist/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEOrbdAF9mzMj7KufsDiRN1o2NJnQ">disbanded the NCP</a>. By itself the UML did not have enough seats to stay in government.Instead of wooing the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dahal-nepal-hold-anti-oli-rally/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dahal-nepal-hold-anti-oli-rally/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEvfue0MH3lJ1lNP99vmlHXhU7Osw">Nepal-Khanal faction </a>with positions in the UML central committee and cabinet, Oli drove them even deeper into an opposition alliance of Dahal’s Maoist Centre (MC) and the Nepali Congress.What followed was the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-sets-elections-in-middle-of-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-sets-elections-in-middle-of-pandemic/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFVkw8yFiE1JiwClvWfAFAEY1n7Tw">theatrics of the night of 21-22 May</a>, when Oli staked a claim of majority in the House of Representatives that he had himself just dissolved to challenge the bid by the NC-MC led coalition to make Sher Bahadur Deuba prime minister for the fourth time. President Bhandari then obliged by rejecting both claims, and announcing fresh elections for November.Deuba then led a group of 146 MPs to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/political-ball-now-in-nepals-supreme-court/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/political-ball-now-in-nepals-supreme-court/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEQnu-1oNVcbLrv7b55lRv2vgSlOg">file a writ in the Supreme Court</a> on 24 May against the second House dissolution and his appointment as prime minister. For good measure,  another 29 petitions were also filed against PM Oli and President Bhandari.For the past fortnight, the Supreme Court had been bogged down in a debate about the composition of the Constitutional Bench. Chief Justice Cholendra SJB Rana was forced to give into pressure to drop two justices that the petitioners felt were tainted by their verdict disbanding the NCP in February, and replace them in the Bench with justices based on seniority.The Attorney General then raised an objection about two new justices, questioning their impartiality. However, on Wednesday Justice Ishwar Khatiwada said enough is enough, and there was no point wasting any more time on debating the composition of the Bench.The Court then asked the Prime Minister’s Office, Prime Minister Oli, President Bhandari and her office, as well as Parliament secretariat to show cause for the dissolution of the House within seven days. It also announced a strict 32-hour timetable for eight days of hearings beginning on 23 June, allocating specific dates and durations for lawyers from both sides, as well as for the amicus curie. The interim decision is expected on 4 July.The Supreme Court has had to step in where the leaders, political parties and their factions, and Parliament could not find a way out of the differences. As a result, K P Oli’s actions first led to the destruction of the NCP, which was formed in 2018 after the election victory of the UML and Maoist Centre. In doing so, Oli took away some veteran war-era Maoist commanders like Ram Bahadur Thapa with him.With Dahal out of the way, Oli’s sights were then aimed at ousting Nepal. This means the Unified Marxist-Lenisists are no longer unified. But even the Nepal faction is divided between those who want to keep striving for party unity and another that wants to form a new party.Oli’s power games even <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jsp-as-nepals-king-maker-party/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jsp-as-nepals-king-maker-party/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHVM_R7YBWNjV5xnocaqANqrFTznw">split the JSP</a> right down the middle. The Mahanta Thakur-led faction has now joined the government with 10 ministers, while the Upendra Yadav-Baburam Bhattarai group has stayed out. Oli replaced his trusted Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali with the untested Raghubir Mahaseth, someone he had sacked for incompetence just last year as Physical Infrastructure Minister.The move is probably an attempt to cash in on Mahaseth’s reputed war-chest, appeal to the Madhes, and since he is from the UML, keep a check on deputy prime minister Rajendra Mahato within the Cabinet. Some have even seen the appointment as Oli trying to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-yam-between-two-indias/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-yam-between-two-indias/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHLoy51qsVw6b4oa-w-u8z02HHpWA">appease the BJP in India.</a>The reshuffle highlighted the government’s inability to focus attention on protecting Nepalis with vaccines while the virus is ravaging the countryside, and addressing the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/jabs-for-jobs/">loss of jobs</a> during the lockdown. In fact, there have been <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/3-health-ministers-in-1-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/3-health-ministers-in-1-year/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623397928972000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFcWfXpiWylV3eXtnyn6ZZlsXzqQQ">three health ministers</a> since the pandemic began, and five since Prime Minister Oli took office in 2018.It now looks likely that the Supreme Court will reinstate the House of Representatives again, and if that happens there will soon be another government.When K P Oli was in jail during the Panchayat, he was an avid chess player and cell-mate Puranjan Acharya remembers him as being a sore loser. Oli needs to hold on to power, and for that he has Plan B: to try to keep the UML intact so that even if the House is reinstated he can still cobble together a majority.However, that plan may have been thwarted this week by the Nepal faction rejecting Oli’s olive branch and conditional offer for rapprochement. This leaves things pretty much up in the air till the Supreme Court gives its decision in three weeks.Some young Turks in the UML have not given up on keeping the UML united, and for this they need to get Oli and Nepal to patch up. The trouble is that the distrust between the two is so deep that they would both rather partner with leaders from another party than their own.The UML’s Yogesh Bhattarai blames both Oli and Nepal for their inability to reconcile differences: “Comrade K P Oli is not ready to work with Comrade Madhav Nepal and Comrade Jhalnath Khanal from his own party, but is willing to share power with Mahanta Thakur and Rajendra Mahato … and Comrade Nepal is unwilling to work with Comrade K P Oli, but is happy to form a coalition with Sher Bahadur Deuba, Prachanda and Upendra Yadav.”Bhattarai asks on social media: “Who, why and for what is this thing dragging on? The root of the problem is that the two leaders cannot get along. To save party unity, they need to find common understanding.”

Kunda Dixit

Going down with the ship

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91cc9c7e80680e06f10fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="428"/>One thing we cannot complain about is that, for once, the world is not ignoring a humanitarian disaster in Nepal. They have even named a variant after us.Worried about the Delta strain spreading in his country, a UK official blamed the ‘Nepal variant’ for spoiling summer holiday plans for many Brits. The tabloid press, but even the BBC, dutifully headlined this, despite a WHO denial about a Nepali strain. But the damage was done. Just google ‘Nepal variant’ now.What the publicity has done is pushed the world to rush oxygen and medical supplies to Nepal. All help is useful in a crisis like this, but much of the aid being flown in contains items that Nepal is already buying in bulk in China.While there was a dire shortage of oxygen cylinders three weeks ago that led to loss of lives, the nature of the emergency has changed. Nepal’s 29 oxygen factories are now working at 100% capacity producing only medical oxygen, and soon there will be a surplus. The problem is not supply, but logistics and equitable distribution.What we really need are vaccines — most urgently for the 1.4 million Nepalis above 65 who got their first dose of Covishield AstraZeneca three months ago, and are now past the default date for their second after India banned its export.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91cf9c7e80680e06f110jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="318"><figcaption>India's total vaccine exports before it was stopped in March.</figcaption></figure>The lockdown should have bought us time for a mass vaccination drive, but once more we squandered two months shutting people in their homes. The restrictions did bring down the daily caseload, but infections are likely to spike again once mobility increases, just like last year.Instead of #NepalVariant trending on Twitter, we need #NepalVaccines to go viral. To be sure, the United States has pledged 80 million surplus doses, but only 7 million of that in the first phase is for the whole of South and Southeast Asia with a population of 1.5 billion. Supply bottlenecks mean the first shipments will not include AstraZeneca.Europe has a stockpile of AstraZeneca and more on order that are not going to be used, either because of slow uptake or because of fears of clots. In France, tens of thousands of doses have gone to waste. Norway and Denmark are not using  AstraZeneca anymore, and some of this may be channeled to Europe’s pledge to donate 100 million doses this year, sell 1.3 billion doses at cost price to low and middle-income countries, and donate another 1.3 billion doses in 2022, mostly through COVAX.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week announced a $50 billion plan to vaccinate 40% of the world population within 2021, and 60% by mid-2022. This is all encouraging news if it happens, but the long and short of it is that for Nepalis, neither the second doses nor vaccines for the larger population are getting here any time soon.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91d19c7e80680e06f111jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="282"><figcaption>Number of patients in ICU and ventilators in Nepal in May.</figcaption></figure>Even Andrew Pollard of Oxford University, an old Nepal hand, and one of the developers of the AstraZeneca vaccine says he feels helpless. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/im-sad-vaccines-are-delayed-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/im-sad-vaccines-are-delayed-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEqHFh4Fbf8IcsJ4g-XnTG5qP1SzA">He wrote in a column</a> in this paper recently: ‘I felt so proud when I saw the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-begins-covid-19-vaccination-drive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-begins-covid-19-vaccination-drive/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE6-2fepjLEOU19PSLjzWqAvKa05A">first doses of the Oxford vaccine being administered in Kathmandu</a>, and the hope that it brought to Nepalis, but I am now saddened to hear that further supply is delayed.’On Tuesday, the 60-65 age group in Kathmandu Valley, and 62-65 outside started being vaccinated with the 1 million extra doses of Sinopharm VeroCell donated by China. However, we need to get jabs to at least 19 million Nepali arms in the next few months to reduce the danger of a pre-Dasain surge, not to mention younger cohorts who are likely to be more vulnerable to a predicted third wave. Negotiations with Sinopharm to procure another 2 million doses are bogged down over a confidentiality clause in the contract.The only ‘Nepali variants’ we should be worried about are the country’s feckless and mutated politicians. Prime Minister Oli has replaced five Health Ministers since 2018, three of them since the pandemic began.Since vaccines are unlikely soon, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3-pronged-strategy-to-save-nepal-from-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/3-pronged-strategy-to-save-nepal-from-covid-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFBpfK-x_4CespExs5Gd3dW9_6oMA">public health experts have warned</a> us repeatedly that even after the lockdown is eased, and even if some people are vaccinated, the only way to prevent future surges is through <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/keep-wearing-masks-after-the-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/keep-wearing-masks-after-the-lockdown/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFrVgv5oLBXzAWQyNuTw7uc_DdWQA">proper masks and physical distancing</a>.A recent <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/covid-19-crisis-india-draws-lessons-from-bangladesh-s-mask-study-121051401341_1.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/covid-19-crisis-india-draws-lessons-from-bangladesh-s-mask-study-121051401341_1.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHgAojjRlhejojvnimKSVT8uOMRbA">Yale study in Bangladesh</a> involving over 300,000 people showed that four simple actions led to a 10-time increase in mask wearing. Their <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1EUhdri6CST9uzw_myffNmyUVPt8_UMsM75NOt5Q-54o/edit" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://docs.google.com/document/d/1EUhdri6CST9uzw_myffNmyUVPt8_UMsM75NOt5Q-54o/edit&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGV_AM4_ATLpwI_uAwFRandfzstdA">four-fold path</a> includes: 1. Giving away free masks, 2. Spread information about how to wear them properly, 3. Get celebrities to promote mask-wearing, 4. Enforce mask-wearing through persuasion and punishment.Official figures <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-covid-19-impact-worse-than-official-figures/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-covid-19-impact-worse-than-official-figures/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH48dysJncU5jxSSYZYwIF57tBcRw">grossly underestimate</a> the spread and fatality from Covid-19 in Nepal. A projection by the <a href="https://covid19.healthdata.org/nepal?view=daily-deaths&amp;tab=trend" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://covid19.healthdata.org/nepal?view%3Ddaily-deaths%26tab%3Dtrend&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1623211108062000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH24lI1y0n0i0mWO_OHRW4ckwQBxA">Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)</a> of the University of Washington School of Medicine in Seattle shows that on 31 May when the government reported 96 deaths from Covid-19, the actual number was closer to 363.IHME calculations also show that 1,000 fewer Nepalis will die by 1 September if 95% of people wore masks while outdoors. The government is hinting that the lockdown rules will be eased on 14 June. Since vaccines are still a long way off, our only protection is masks and minimising movement.

Nepal goes viral

<figure><img width="871" height="657" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd82a9c7e80680e092e2ajpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Illustration: SUBHAS RAI/NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVES</figcaption></figure>There has been a lot of speculative analysis this week about the winners and losers in Nepal’s latest political upheaval, after the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-takes-1-step-forward-2-steps-back/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-takes-1-step-forward-2-steps-back/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615441393580000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEBODxWrlYxavSW1mb4nTIQnSWhow">decision on 7 March by the Supreme Court</a> that annulled the unification of the incumbent Nepal Communist Party (NCP).
Ruling on a petition that the party name was already registered, the Bench went beyond what was demanded to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/no-winners-in-latest-nepal-political-twist/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/no-winners-in-latest-nepal-political-twist/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615441393580000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFA9lKBadTPxClyS2Q2IZtbqCM4xQ">reinstate the NCP’s two constituent parties</a>: the UML led by K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s Maoist Centre.
Ever since 2018, the country has been forced to pay the price for the inability of these two leaders to overcome their oversized egos. Nepal’s policy-making and development ground to a halt as the party and government got mired in intrigue and back-stabbing between the triumvirate of Oli, Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal.
Then, the Covid-19 crisis struck and Singha Darbar was too distracted to launch an effective response in time. The leaders were busy at their residences in Baluwatar, Khumaltar and Balkot in back-room wheeling and dealing.
Increasingly isolated, and fighting a rear-guard action, Prime Minister Oli <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepalis-outraged-by-pm-oli-move/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepalis-outraged-by-pm-oli-move/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615441393580000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGt3yu1ylZg8P2ZS692_FLF9owxOg">dissolved the Lower House </a>on 20 December just before the Dahal faction could register a no-confidence vote. When the Supreme Court restored the House on 23 February, there was great jubilation, with Dahal and Nepal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/calm-before-another-storm-in-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/calm-before-another-storm-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615441393580000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGZhGCDgiLR1lQwdpoErvODvGXB2A">feeding each other ladoo</a> in front of cheering cadre.
That celebration turned out to be premature because it looks like Oli had another trick up his sleeves. Sunday’s decision effectively dismantled the NCP and bifurcated it once more between the UML and the Maoists.  
If it is indeed true that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/you-stab-my-back-i-stab-yours/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/you-stab-my-back-i-stab-yours/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615441393580000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFRWCGtRoTgwBYmPcNl98vgmLxzKA">Oli had masterminded this all along</a>, then he is even more of a schemer than we had given him credit for. That is not necessarily good for the rule of law since it means unacceptable executive interference in the judiciary. 
The general conclusion is that Oli had nothing left to lose, and was willing to dissolve Parliament and split the party to prevent his two nemeses from gaining control of the NCP chair and prime ministership — even if it meant sacrificing his leadership of government.
As someone said this week, Oli is playing chess and Dahal is playing checkers. The coming weeks will show how the party <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/parliamentary-arithmetics/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/parliamentary-arithmetics/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615441393580000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEMqxOiytnWcq053Om0OMguoEYsbg">numbers in Parliament</a> will play out in the formation of the next government. Both the UML and the Maoists are now courting the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) to obtain the total 135 in the current 270-member Lower House.
The UML with 121 MPs will just need the NC’s 63 seats to cobble together a coalition, whereas the Maoists with 53 members will require both the NC and the JSP’s 34 to do so. All week, the two parties have been wooing the NC’s Sher Bahadur Deuba and JSP leaders, with Dahal more interested for now in unseating Oli in a no-confidence vote than in forming a government. 
All this takes us back to the bad old days of cyclical coalitions of the late 1990s and the early 2010s when the functions of government were paralysed by short-term politicking — exactly the kind of instability the 2015 Constitution was supposed to put a stop to.
Hopes that the unification of the NCP in 2018 would bring stability and put Nepal on the track to growth have also been dashed. The country has now gone back three years. To be sure, the UML and the Maoists had never really united and it remained ideologically polarised between जबज and जन युद्द (People’s Multiparty Democracy vs People’s War). 
True to the dictum that a Communist party regards the faction immediately to the right of it as a greater enemy than an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/opium-of-the-masters/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/opium-of-the-masters/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615441393580000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEiijHAUvZnOZmG1U2FJJ6N32uHKQ">extreme rightwing party</a>, both factions distrusted each other more than the NC. As he got more cornered, Oli was openly <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/k-p-oli-rams-it-home/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/k-p-oli-rams-it-home/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615441393580000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFP8QkFGqrRmuWQmzNc_ChN1DxqIA">flirting with the Hindu right</a>.
The question now is which serial prime minister will be the new prime minister. Not that it matters much, these are all tried, tested and failed leaders who have had multiple chances in the past decades to prove their statesmanship.
The best-case scenario would be if the current political crisis could be turned into an opportunity by the four main parties to skip a generation and elevate a new crop of untainted younger leaders with fresh blood and energy. 
But that may be wishful thinking. We are once more seriously underestimating the egos and ambition of these superannuated septuagenarians.

It’s broke, fix it

<figure><img width="1076" height="606" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111148/636cd7ce9c7e80680e092e05jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-takes-1-step-forward-2-steps-back/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">decision on Sunday by the Supreme Court</a> that effectively makes the unification of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) null and void, just hours before a crucial recovering of the dissolved Lower House, has thrown the country’s politics into further turmoil and uncertainty.This was reflected in the first session of the restored House on Sunday (pictured below) as the NCP faction led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal staged a walk out, saying Prime Minister K P Oli had no moral right to present ordinances in a House that he himself had <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepalis-outraged-by-pm-oli-move/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">dissolved on 20 December</a>.  <img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd7d09c7e80680e092e06jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd7d29c7e80680e092e07jpeg.jpg" alt="">Photos: AMIT MACHAMASIAs the House sat for the first time in two months, there was confusion about whether MPs of the NCP were in the ruling party or the opposition. Dahal called the Supreme Court decision “unexpected” and is said to be in consultations with his colleagues about the way forward.  The alliance between the erstwhile UML led by Prime Minister K P Oli and the Maoist Centre headed by Dahal had won a near two-thirds majority in the 2017 election, and promised political stability in the country. Nepal’s politics has been anything but stable — mainly because Oli and Dahal could not get along. The general impression was that Oli had pulled the rug from under his rivals, by going back to his old party and turning the clock back on unification. However, in doing this, Oli might have sacrificed his own leadership of government. Prime Minister Oli will now have to prove that he has the confidence of a majority of the members of the House. However, there is no chance that the 53 or so members of the Dahal faction will now support him.  “There are now two parties, and as soon as the rival party withdraws its backing, the prime minister has to demonstrate that he has the support of the house,” says constitutional expert Bhimarjun Acharya. The House was reconvened by a Supreme Court decision on 23 February that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-supreme-court-restores-house/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">overturned Prime Minister Oli’s dissolution</a>. However, with the Dahal faction walking out and the opposition Nepali Congress (NC) raising slogans against the ordinances being proposed, the session had to go into recess. Speaker Agni Sapkota then recessed the House till Wednesday. Another expert, Prof Purna Man Shakya said: “If he wants to remain prime minister Oli’s party will have to get additional votes for which the only way to muster support is from the Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP). Failing that, the Maoist Centre, NC and JSP could also form the government.” The House of Representatives has 121 members from the former UML, 63 from the NC, 53 from the Maoist Centre and the JSP has 34. There are four independents. To have a majority in the 275 member House, the UML will need support from one other party, while the Maoist Centre will need three parties to come together. But this arithmetic is complicated by the fact that some former UML are in the Dahal faction, while some ex-Maoists are with Oli.  Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali says the Supreme Court decision actually allows party reunification. “Now we can plan to reunite the party in a more scientific and pragmatic way,” he said.  The future of former Maoists who are ministers in the Oli Cabinet, like Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa and Energy Minister Top Bahadur Rayamajhi are also in doubt. The 2015 Constitution has an anti-defection clause for MPs, so they cannot now join the Maoist-Centre. Advocate Meghraj Pokhrel says former Maoist Centre ministers cannot now go over to the UML, they have to return to their original party.  They cannot take part in a future Oli government if he manages support from other parties, and they will be in a dilemma to go back to the Dahal-led party. Members of parliament who won by-elections after the UML-Maoist unification is also uncertain. The biggest loss will be to Madhav Kumar Nepal and Jhalnath Khanal, two former UML prime ministers who joined up with Dahal. They may now be forced to remain in the Oli-led UML.  Constitutional expert Acharya says that the two leaders will require a 40% agreement from the Central Committee and the Parliamentary Party of the CPN-UML to join the Maoist Centre or to form a new party, which they do not have. <img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd7d59c7e80680e092e08jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd7d79c7e80680e092e09jpeg.jpg" alt="">“Nepal and Khanal now face a dilemma whether to vote for or against PM Oli if the government tables a confidence motion in Parliament," Acharya says. “And Oli is likely to take action against them if they vote against him." The Supreme Court’s decision seems to have worked to Oli’s benefit and put the Nepal-Khanal camp in the horns of a dilemma, says Prof Shakya. "However, the Supreme Court makes decisions based on the Constitution and the rule of law, not based on who stands to gain or lose politically,” he adds. “Therefore we must analyse the decision in accordance with the constitution and the law.”

No winners in latest Nepal political twist

<figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111148/636cd7c29c7e80680e092e00jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s political drama took another unexpected turn on Sunday as the Supreme Court ruled that the name Nepal Communist Party (NCP) belonged to another group, taking the country back to where it was three years ago when the ruling party was made up of two entities.The 12-page decision came two hours before the House of Representatives reconvened after another Supreme Court ruling on 23 February that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-supreme-court-restores-house/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">overturned Prime Minister K P Oli’s decision two months earlier to dissolve the House</a> and call early elections.Sunday’s decision means that for all practical purposes the NCP is once more divided between Oli’s moderate left Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) party and the Maoist Centre led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal.Dahal had led the Maoist guerrillas in a ten-year insurgency and had forged an electoral alliance with Oli to fight the 2017 elections, which it swept and the two parties formally united in 2018. Ever since, Dahal and Oli had been tangled in a bitter power struggle within the party, and when Oli got wind that a vote of no confidence was being registered in the Lower House by the rival faction, he <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepalis-outraged-by-pm-oli-move/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">dissolved it on 20 December</a>. There was uncertainty in the Lower House when it reconvened on Sunday (pictured below) as per the Supreme Court ruling, with confusion as to whether the Dahal faction was on the ruling bench or the opposition one. <img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111148/636cd7c59c7e80680e092e01jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111148/636cd7c79c7e80680e092e02jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111148/636cd7c99c7e80680e092e03jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111148/636cd7cc9c7e80680e092e04jpeg.jpg" alt="">The political fate of many senior politicians is now in doubt, as there were former Maoists like Ram Bahadur Thapa in Oli’s camp, and many ex-UML leaders like Madhav Kumar Nepal with Dahal.The Supreme Court decision on Sunday said: ‘Since the Election Commission decision, the Nepal Communist Party (Unified Marxist-Leninist) and the Nepal Communist Party (Maoist Centre) will revert to their previous separate status  unless they re-register themselves as a single party with a name other than Nepal Communist Party at the Election Commission fulfilling all its conditions.’In the past two months, the Oli and Dahal factions had been lobbying hard with the Election Commission to be given the party name and the elections symbol (Sun). The Election Commission had not yet recognised that the party was formally split. The two factions had also engaged in a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/muscle-vs-muscle-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">show of strength in the streets with huge rallies</a> to impress the Supreme Court that the House dissolution was unconstitutional. While the apex court agreed with that decision, it has now ruled that neither party has a claim to the name Nepal Communist Party and has effectively reinstated the previous parties before unification.

Nepal takes 1 step forward, 2 steps back

<figure><img width="769" height="476" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd4c9c7e80680e08bc6cjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: SOCIAL MEDIA</figcaption></figure>The morning after <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/supreme-court-puts-nepal-politics-back-on-track/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s Supreme Court reinstated the Lower House</a> that had been dissolved by Prime Minister K P Oli two months ago, the mood in Kathmandu is of a calm before another storm.The past two months since the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepalis-outraged-by-pm-oli-move/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">House dissolution on 20 December</a> had been punctuated with daily demonstrations and rallies on the streets by supporters of Oli and his arch rival in the Nepal Communist Party, Pushpa Kamal Dahal.Overnight, the reality has sunk in that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-supreme-court-restores-house/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Supreme Court decision</a>, while bringing derailed politics back on track, has opened up more uncertainties that will keep Nepal unstable into the near future.A lot will hinge on whether Prime Minsiter K P Oli resigns, as his enemies have been demanding, or if he decides to face off a no-confidence vote in Parliament when it reconvenes before 8 March as the Supreme Court ordered on Tuesday.The Dahal faction of the NCP has been jubilant about the victory. However, even if Oli steps down, it will faces a challenge in cobbling together a coalition with smaller parties.The prime minister has not reacted publicly since Chief Justice Cholendra SJB Rana announced the verdict of the Constitutional Bench of the Supreme Court on 24 February, which coincided with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/the-oligarchy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Oli’s 68th birthday</a>. Oli’s advisers have said he is in no mood to step down, and will face a confidence vote in the House.Things will not be easy for Oli. The Dahal faction does not just want him to step down, but for the party to take disciplinary action against him. They also will hold the threat of impeaching President Bidya Devi Bhandari, who is close to Oli, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/president-endorses-parliament-dissolution/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">who signed off on the House dissolution</a>. <img width="640" height="305" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd4e9c7e80680e08bc6djpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="306" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd509c7e80680e08bc6ejpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="361" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd529c7e80680e08bc6fjpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="317" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd559c7e80680e08bc70jpeg.jpg" alt="">Dahal has decided not to take part in a rally in Chitwan and has returned to Kathmandu for consultations with party colleagues in the NCP parliamentary committee on Wednesday about his next move. He has ruled out working with Oli, and has demanded his immediate resignation.However, he has been coy about his own prime ministerial ambition, telling the media that he would work with other parties on a national consensus. He has in the past said he would be willing to make the NC’s Sher Bahadur Deuba, who has been prime minister four times already, PM again. Dahal is said to have talked to Deuba on the phone on Tuesday.Even though they have accepted the Supreme Court’s verdict, supporters of K P Oli have expressed their dissatisfaction with the ruling. Deputy Prime Minister and staunch Oli loyalist Ishwar Pokhrel said the move would destabilise Nepali politics.“The prime minister was no allowed to work and tried to seek a fresh electoral mandate,” Pokhrel said. “His effort has been thwarted by a verdict in a constitutional garb. We accept it, but do not agree with it.”Meanwhile, another NCP leader, Bam Dev Gautam, who has tried to play both sides in the power struggle in his attempt to become prime minister even though he lost the 2017 election, called for a party secretariat meeting. Gautam has been trying to keep the party intact and carve out a role for himself.The nine-member secretariat is almost equally divided between Oli supporters Ishwar Pokhrel, Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa, General Secretary Bishnu Poudel, while Dahal has former prime ministers Madhav Kumar Nepal, Jhalnath Khanal, and Narayan Kaji Shrestha on his side. Gautam’s vote in the secretariat would be a tie-breaker.The <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Editorial/editorial-alternative-current,3860" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">alternative political party</a> Sajha Bibeksheel welcomed the Supreme Court verdict, calling on Oli to resign from prime ministership and to work towards the formation of a new government without indulging in any more intrigue. It also called on President Bhandari, whom it called “a rubber stamp of the prime minister” to step down. <img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd569c7e80680e08bc71jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd589c7e80680e08bc72jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd599c7e80680e08bc73jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd5a9c7e80680e08bc74jpeg.jpg" alt="">Activist affiliated with the Dahal-Nepal faction of the Nepal Communist Party, stage rallies in Kathmandu on Wednesday, welcoming the Supreme court decision to reinstate the Lower House Photos: AMIT MACHAMASITIMELINE 66 days after the Supreme Court verdict overturning the House dissolution 20, December 2020 Cabinet forwards recommendation for the dissolution of the Lower House to the President. President Bidya Devi Bhandari dissolves the Lower House. Seven ministers resign from the Cabinet. Vote of no confidence registered against PM Oli at the Parliamentary Secretariat. 21-22 December 13 writs filed in the Supreme Court against the dissolution move. 23 December Chief Justice Cholendra SJB Rana calls for writs to be heard in the Constitutional Court. Refuses to announce an interim order on the case. 24 December The Constitutional Bench (Harikrishna Karki, Bishwombar Prasad Shrestha, Anil Sinha and Tej Bahadur KC headed by Chief Justice Rana) presides over the first hearing against the writ. The Prime Minister's office, President's office and the Speaker are directed to furnish written responses by  3 January, 2021. The bench directs the offices to attend hearings and to present a list of the details of the party affiliation of the members of the House of Representatives. The order also calls for deployment of two to three judges from Nepal Bar Association and Supreme Court to an amicus curiae. 3 January, 2021 The offices of the President and the Prime Minister and the Speaker present written responses to the Supreme Court. The President and the Prime Minister insist the move of dissolution was in line with the Constitution. The Speaker terms the dissolution 'unconstitutional' and requests the SC to overrule. 5 January The 13 writs are re-filed with the demand for them to be heard in Full Court and not at the Constitutional Court. Law professionals argue that Judge Harikrishna Karki should not be presiding over the hearing related to the issue, citing his close association with the PM, calling it a conflict of interest. Karki had served as an advocate  during KP Oli's term as Prime Minister in 2016.  Judge Karki steps down from the case's hearing at the Constitutional Court. 6 January The Supreme Court rules for the issue of the dissolution of the Lower House to be moved to a Full Court. Justice Sapna Pradhan Malla replaces Karki on the Bench. Law professionals demand a Full Court hearing. 15 January The SC rules that the debate has raised ‘serious questions on constitutional definition’ and that such a case will be heard at the Constitutional Court. 17 January A month after the dissolution, the main hearing on the cases begin. The writ petitioners demand that the dissolution of the Lower House be quashed. 31 January The hearings are complete. The delay in a verdict from the SC raises questions over SC's independence. Street protests by both factions are a daily occurrence. <figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd5b9c7e80680e08bc75jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd5e9c7e80680e08bc76jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd609c7e80680e08bc77jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd639c7e80680e08bc78jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>1 FebruaryHearings defending the government begin. Defendants say the dissolution of the Lower House was legitimate.11 FebruaryThe lawyers defending the cases on behalf of the  government and the Prime Minister rest their cases. Three lawyers argue the case on behalf of the Speaker. They demand that the dissolution of the Lower House be overruled.14 FebruaryHearings from writ petitioners begin.15 FebruaryResponse to the hearings completed. They argue there is no alternative to reinstatement of the Lower House of Parliament, as the PM's move was unconstitutional.16 FebruaryAmicus Curie hearing begins18 FebruaryThree lawyers from Nepal Bar Association and two from SC Bar Association attend the hearings. Senior advocates Badri Bahadur Karki, Satish Krishna Kharel, Purnaman Shakya and Geeta Pathak forward their argument to the bench saying the dissolution was unconstitutional. Senior advocate Bijaykanta Mainali argues that the constitution has given the Prime Minister the right to dissolve the House.SC orders for the hearing note to be presented on 22 February.23 FeburarySC issues a verdict saying the recommendation and decision to dissolve the Lower House of Parliament was unconstitutional. Demands the House of Representatives be summoned within 13 days.

Calm before another storm in Nepal

<figure></figure> <img width="720" height="480" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd429c7e80680e08bc68jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>The Dahal-Nepal faction of the Nepal Communist Party, stage rallies in Ratna Park, Kathmandu, welcoming the SC decision to reinstate the Lower House of Parliament. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI/NEPALI TIMES</figcaption> The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-supreme-court-restores-house/">Constitutional Bench of Nepal’s Supreme Court ruled on Tuesday</a> that a prime minister with a majority in Parliament did not have the authority to dissolve it, ending two months of speculation about whether it would back Prime Minister K P Oli’s dissolution of the Lower House. The five-member Constitutional Bench also ruled that Parliament be restored by 8 March, thus moving the focus of attention back to the legislature where there could be a struggle to form the next government and find a prime minister since the ruling party is now as good as split.Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali and Oli loyalist has said his faction of the party would honour the Court verdict because it believed in the Constitution and the rule of law.Analysts have welcomed the Bench’s decision, saying it sets a precedent for the future, and also firmly established the separation of powers and the independence of the judiciary despite attempts by political factions to try to influence it.Both factions of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) had argued that the other side had leaned on the Supreme Court justices to make a ruling in its favour, with dire warnings about unleashing street unrest. <img width="909" height="453" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd449c7e80680e08bc69jpeg.jpg" alt=""> Indeed, the verdict read out by Chief Justice Cholendra SJB Rana spelt out clearly why Oli’s step was unconstitutional. It said: ‘Prime Minister Oli’s recommendation to dissolve the House and its assent by the President lacked legal backing and went against the spirit, principles and values of the Constitution ... the decision is overturned.”The 15-page decision now reinstates the Lower House to its previous state. The verdict states: ‘The House will now be restored to its status quo before the unconstitutional dissolution because it is capable and empowered to do so.’Although the Constitution requires that a House session be called within six months of the dissolution of Parliament, the Supreme Court has directed the President’s Office, the Prime Minister’s Office and prime minister, Speaker Agni Sapkota to reconvene the House within 13 days. The decision has over-ruled the argument by the government’s lawyers that since the House dissolution was a political matter between factions of the ruling party, it did not need the intervention of the judiciary. It has also removed the need for an expensive snap election. With the dissolution of the House on 20 December, Prime Minister Oli had also called for early elections in April and May. The Election Commission had also started preparations for the polls. Elections will now be held as scheduled in 2022.The Supreme Court decision now sets a precedent that it is the responsibility of the judiciary to have a say in matters that deal with constitutional matters, especially its provisions and interpretation. It said: ‘If the boundaries laid by the Constitution have been crossed, and this Court is not allowed to rule on it because it is deemed to be political, then it will not have fulfilled its responsibility granted by the very Constitution.” In fact, the justices ruled that a precedent had been set by previous Supreme Court rulings based on the 1991 Constitution in which it had said that earlier dissolutions of the House were a constitutional matter within the jurisdiction of the apex court. It said such matters of constitutional importance could not be brushed aside because they are deemed to be ‘political’ in nature. Prime Minister Oli himself had submitted a written justification to the Court arguing that it was within the prerogative of the head of government to dissolve the House, as in other parliamentary democracies. The Bench argued that Nepal’s federal democratic Constitution was different from other parliamentary democracies, and the prime minister did not have the authority under the Constitution to dissolve the House.‘The Constitution clearly lays out the conditions under which the House can be dissolved, and it does not allow dissolution based on someone’s personal whims or fancy, or when there are other alternatives for government formation to have expensive elections that would burden the people,’ the verdict further notes. There were 13 writ petitions against the Prime Minister’s move, and they accused him of dissolving the House with ill intent. However, the Court said it did not see the need to decide on the prime minister’s motive at the present time.Meanwhile, Pushpa Kamal Dahal who leads the faction opposed to Oli said he would now start talking with the smaller parties to try to establish a majority in Parliament. He said he would not make a bid for prime ministership, but admitted that if the other parties wanted he would be willing to take the job. Dahal and his loyalists have ruled out reuniting with the Oli faction, saying there is now there is too much bad blood between the two. This leaves the possibility of the Dahal faction allying with the opposition Nepali Congress and smaller parties to form the next government.

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