Exactly 90 years ago this week, Nepal was struck by the Great Earthquake of 1934 killing over 8,500 people across the country. In Kathmandu, 70% of the houses collapsed in the 8.3 magnitude disaster.&nbsp; To commemorate the event, 16 January is observed every year as National Earthquake Safety Day.&nbsp; Nepal has gone through many transitions in the past 90 years. From the Rana era to the 1950s interim years, to the Panchayat, the conflict and federal republic. Nepal has also experienced many other smaller seismic events, including the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake which ended up killing nearly 9,000 people and damaging some 800,000 buildings. And as the 3 November 2023 earthquake in Jajarkot showed, Nepal is still not prepared for these disasters. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/jajarkot-survivors-show-collective-resilience">Jajarkot survivors show collective resilience</a>, Durga Rana magar ‘There was a movement in the land similar to that of the waves in the water … the land seemed to twist and most of the buildings toppled. The movement was so strong … the trees bent down as during a hurricane,’ narrates Brahma Shumsher Rana in his book Nepal ko Mahabhukampa which came out later that year. Bramha Shumsher was the son of Major General Baber Shumsher and describes how the ground split sending fountains of hot water and sand shoot up. The Bagmati and the Vishnumati rivers turned black with dirty water.&nbsp; ‘Some sought support to keep themselves on their feet, while others ran like animals with their hands on the ground. Some mothers having come out into the open ground went back for the love of their children and were crushed to death… But even those men who ran away were not saved. The narrow streets and lanes in the towns became traps,’ the book says. Read also:<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state"> In a disastrous state</a>, Sonia Awale  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240111100112_8f1bf4ab9e23ba750d2fab64f2c9140940f0c3d2b4796bb8f9e649c722cfd69d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20240111100112_8f1bf4ab9e23ba750d2fab64f2c9140940f0c3d2b4796bb8f9e649c722cfd69d" data-rendition-name="original" width="812" height="380" loading="lazy" alt="Page 1 inset NT"> <figcaption>SHAKEN: Patan Darbar Square after the 1994 quake (inset), and the overlapping restoration following 2015. 1934 was 1990 in the Bikram Sambat calendar.</figcaption> </figure>  Nepal is a seismically active zone and is struck by such earthquakes every 70-80 years. The 7.8M Gorkha quake in central Nepal in 2015 is often mistaken for one of those megaquakes. Himalayan seismologist Roger Bilham told Nepali Times then that it was not the big one which scientists had feared. In fact the faults in Central Nepal are still collecting energy and could be let off at any time. But even more imminent is the long seismic gap in western Nepal which did not dissipate all its energy in the November quake, says engineer Surya Narayan Shrestha of the National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET) - Nepal. The last big quake in western Nepal in 1505 is estimated to be 8.9M and killed one-third of Kathmandu Valley’s population including the king, devastated north India, and created the debris flow where Pokhara city is situated today. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/back-to-classroom-for-earthquake-preparedness">Back to classroom for earthquake preparedness</a>, Rachael Lau “Energy accumulated in western Nepal is big enough to cause an earthquake bigger than 8M, the Jajarkot earthquake released very minimal stress,” Shrestha explains. “This means there is still the possibility of a 1934 type event in Kathmandu, which could be deadlier because of the larger population.”&nbsp; The Himalayan Thrust fault system means a mega quake can happen anywhere in western Nepal from the Mahakali or Palpa. Either way, an 8M earthquake in western Nepal would immediately destroy 1.5 million buildings across the country and kill 100,000 people, if it struck at night. Hospitals would have collapsed too. Few still standing would be overwhelmed with some 200,000 individuals estimated to be seriously injured. Substandard schools and public buildings would go down like a house of cards. Electricity, highways, telecommunication and drinking water systems would be disrupted. The 2015 earthquake should have been a lesson to Nepalis to be prepared for a mega-quake, especially in terms of building safer structures. To be sure, 90% of the rebuilt structures do follow the government building code, but many in Kathmandu have blatantly flouted rules.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/be-prepared">Be prepared</a>, Editorial  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240111100120_3ba19345a7f38b98c58a30c0bdbcde099f254179a10c60c43a1ac954636853ee.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20240111100120_3ba19345a7f38b98c58a30c0bdbcde099f254179a10c60c43a1ac954636853ee" data-rendition-name="original" width="524" height="451" loading="lazy" alt="1934 earthquake NT"> </figure>  “We have policies and legal frameworks in place but our preparedness is still negligible,” warns Shrestha. “The existing structures are already vulnerable but newer buildings even more so.”&nbsp; Following the 1934 earthquake, a geologist and engineer identified only as Mr Eden made some observations and gave a series of instructions regarding safe building in Nepal, which was published in Gorkhapatra at the time. He notes: ‘Bhaktapur, Harisiddhi, Khokana and Bungamati areas are liable to greatest destruction in an earthquake while Pashupatinath, Baudha and Gokarna are to be least feared. Syambhu and Kirtipur are similarly free from danger. In the Nepalese Terai, it is not advisable to build houses close to streams, rivers and tanks.’ Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/lessons-still-not-learnt">Lessons still not learnt</a>, Sonia Awale Eden also pushed for earthquake-proof buildings with details about what kind of buildings to construct and where. ‘The type of the soil is not the only factor that causes destruction in an earthquake. It also depends upon the structural design, the materials used and the skills of the builders,’ he is quoted as writing. Nearly a century ago, we already knew what to do. Concrete buildings are not necessarily stronger. In fact, substandard concrete buildings are even more of a death trap, especially given that Nepal does not have the search and rescue teams and equipment for such collapsed structures. Warns Shrestha: “A 8M earthquake will happen one day, and all these substandard buildings will come crashing down. It will be a calamity of epic proportions.” Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/past-disasters-foretold/" target="_blank">Past disasters foretold</a>, Om Astha Rai

Sonia Awale

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90 years after ’90

The 2015 earthquakes in Central Nepal that killed over 9,000 people had many lessons for us, most important of which was the need to be prepared for future disasters. After all, it was not a question of if there would be another quake, but when. And sure enough, it came with the 6.4 Jajarkot earthquake of 3 November. At least 160 people were killed outright, buried under the rubble of their fragile homes. Dozens more have died of cold and diseases since. After the 2015 disaster, there was a general consensus about putting safety measures into place: building seismic-resistant structures, retrofitting public buildings, and the need for emergency preparedness. Prior to this, there was no such understanding at the political level, within government or the public. Another big lesson learned was how a separate institution, independent from the regular government structure, can more effectively carry out reconstruction, post-disaster. Reconstruction was fraught with challenges, political interference being the foremost. But the National Reconstruction Authority (NRA) coordinated effectively between internal and external assistance, and helped to carry out the process successfully. The NRA was also crucial in managing resources, setting guidelines, and developing a single goal-oriented approach that would incorporate everyone from the public to the Prime Minister. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/grief-stricken-survivors-are-cold-and-hungry">Grief-stricken survivors are cold and hungry</a>, Sagar Budathoki But we did more than rebuild the houses. What was achieved was technology transfer on a massive scale, including knowledge about safe building even for mud-mortar, stone and wooden structures. It also showed us how to make cash distribution transparent and take it directly to the people with zero-tolerance for corruption. We created a National Consultative Council for all the political parties to work together as well as the bureaucracy, private sector, and civil society. At the district level, a mechanism was put in place for MPs and representatives from all three levels to collaborate. There were vertical and horizontal links between all levels. The NRA was superseded by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) in 2019 which has since put forward plans to make Nepal a disaster resilient country by 2030. Blueprints, frameworks and maps have been created for earthquake and flood preparedness and relief. They were submitted to the government, but it has been filed away with no action taken. As soon as the reconstruction work was complete, it seems we forgot about disaster preparedness. And so, when the Jajarkot earthquake struck, we were unprepared again. We cannot prevent or predict earthquakes, but we sure can prepare. Even so, all we seem to be capable of is to react after a disaster hits. More than 60,000 houses were partially or completely damaged in the Bajhang, Doti, and Jajarkot earthquakes that have struck in the past year. Most of the partially damaged houses have to be demolished. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state">In a disastrous state</a>, Sonia Awale  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231124081136_7326ad8a1402b30c2a9698697e9922a4dc54d5ad84a5bc0dc1a68e3d2da66c3f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20231124081136_7326ad8a1402b30c2a9698697e9922a4dc54d5ad84a5bc0dc1a68e3d2da66c3f" data-rendition-name="original" width="2250" height="1499" loading="lazy" alt="2023 Western Nepal earthquake NT"></figure>  The NDRRMA allocates Rs400,000 in subsidy for houses to be rebuilt in the mountains. This adds up to Rs24 billion, and if we add other expenses including technical assistance, technology transfer and others, the total comes to Rs30 billion. But if we had followed the preparedness plan, we could have retrofitted and made houses across Nepal safer at a lower cost. They could have withstood a moderate earthquake like the one in Jajarkot and the casualties would have been much lighter. What we had proposed was a safety steel rod in every mud-mortar house, retrofitting and Rs100,000 to the owner so that the structure is safe from earthquakes as well as water and fire disasters. In fact, 300,000 houses across the country could have been retrofitted with just Rs30 billion with the government providing the initial Rs100,000 in subsidy for people to reinforce their concrete homes. The World Bank was ready to invest $10 million to survey the state of houses across the country for retrofitting, but it never took off. Reconstruction of the structures damaged by the Jajarkot earthquake will now proceed. The good news is that after the 2015 earthquake, we now have experience and expertise in doing that. We also have local governments, unlike the last time. They will be at the frontlines of reconstruction and resettlement. NDRRMA can provide strategic guidelines, gather resources, coordinate and train human resources, monitor the reconstruction work carried out through the local and state levels, and give policy directions. This exercise in turn will capacitate all three structures of government, and in the long term, all three levels of the government will be better equipped to deal with disasters. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/rebuilding-resilience-7-years-later">Rebuilding resilience 7 years later</a>, Anil Pokharel It is an opportunity to put our federal structure to good use, empower local leaders, resolve doubts about the system, coordinate the three levels of government and mobilise the support of the international community. Shelter is the topmost priority following any disaster, especially now that winter has set in on the western mountains. Survivors need relief materials including money for temporary housing. We need to identify beneficiaries, distribute grants by establishing a banking system, develop human resources and other frameworks. Only after that do we start reconstruction. Experts, government agencies and local representatives should coordinate with all levels of government to determine the role and share the work. Initiatives should be taken now in terms of raising resources. We have created a framework for dealing with disasters at the national level in the form of the Disaster Resilience Framework.Similarly, provinces and local levels should also create theirs. The framework has five elements: 1. Provide financial and technical support to make homes and schools safer through local governments. 2. Assess the damage and estimate the amount needed. 3. Put the Disaster Management Act into operation at all three levels of government. 4. Look at disaster insurance instead of just doling out money to people to rebuild. The government can pay the premium for the poorest families 5. Establish emergency centres with relief stockpiles at the federal, provincial and local levels. The Far West and Karnali provinces are underserved. Reconstruction, if done intelligently, is also an opportunity to uplift these areas economically. Disaster preparedness should be integrated into the education system so young Nepalis know that the country is disaster-prone and it is best to be prepared. Disasters do not kill people but poorly built structures do-- local levels should carry out risk assessment while developing land use plans. Most of all, what is needed now is the readiness to implement the blueprints, frameworks, experience and knowledge that we gleaned after 2015. Otherwise this tragedy will also be in vain. Read also:<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/epicentre-of-two-disasters-in-west-nepal"> Epicentre of two disasters in West Nepal</a>, Sonia Awale

Learning from Jajarkot what we didn't after 2015

The deadly midnight earthquake last Friday in Karnali Province occurred in an area where seismologists had long predicted the next Big One. 
This was the ‘seismic gap’ that this newspaper first wrote about in its <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5065">9-15 January 2004 edition</a> commemorating National Earthquake Safety Day and the 70th anniversary of the 8.5 magnitude 1934 disaster.
The subduction of the Indian plate into and below the Eurasian landmass leads to accumulated stress in the rock strata deep beneath the Himalaya. This tectonic tension builds up over time, and if it is not released periodically the result could be a megaquake that could result in a rupture leading to 6m or more of horizontal surface displacement.
Read Also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/deadly-earthquake-hits-w-nepal">Deadly earthquake hits W Nepal</a>, Nepali Times 
Seismic experts now say that the 3 November event was not the massive one that was expected. At 6.4 it was a moderate quake with a shallow epicenter, which is why the destruction was limited to a relatively small radius although the shaking was felt as far away as Delhi and Kathmandu.
The disaster also exposed Nepal’s demographic shift. Of the 157 confirmed dead so far, many were women because most men have migrated abroad for work. There was also a class and caste element, as the flimsiest homes belonged to the poorest families. 
Disaster management experts like to say that it is not earthquakes that kill people but buildings. Indeed, quakes are not ‘natural disasters’ but mostly man made. Proof of this was the 25 April 2105 earthquake which killed nearly 9,000 people in central Nepal as substandard buildings collapsed. 
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/grief-stricken-survivors-are-cold-and-hungry">Grief-stricken survivors are cold and hungry</a>, Sagar Budhathoki
Tragically, this also was proven in last week’s disaster when fragile stone and mud plaster homes collapsed with the very first jolt. Newer buildings with reinforced concrete columns withstood the shaking, but had the intensity and duration of the quake been longer they would have also crumbled.
Seismologists say the Jajarkot quake was not strong enough to release all the tectonic stress -- which could mean it was either a precursor to a bigger one to come, or it has made the region safe for another decade or so.
There is no way to predict it either way. What we know for sure is that the next one is not a question of ‘if’ but ‘when’. It is better to invest now in preparedness than in counting bodies and the number of collapsed buildings after a disaster.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/mass-cremations-for-nepal-quake-victims">Mass cremations for Nepal quake victims</a>, Sagar Budhathoki and Gopen Rai
For this, we already have lessons from the 2015 earthquake. Nearly 7,500 school buildings with 35,000 classrooms collapsed eight years ago and even if we make a conservative estimate of only 10 students per class, the loss of young lives would have been catastrophic. What saved them was that the quake happened on a Saturday.
In Jajarkot and Rukum West last week, many families were crushed by their falling homes while they slept. But given the number of schools that have collapsed, the casualty rate may have been higher if the quake had happened in the daytime on a weekday.
The first order of business for prevention would therefore be to retrofit school buildings all over Nepal, but especially in Gandaki, Karnali and Far Western Provinces. Earthquake safety instruction and drills should also be mandatory in schools. Digging tools, tents, first aid kits and go bags must be pre-positioned in school premises which can serve as shelters. Hospitals and public buildings also need to be retrofitted, and private home owners encouraged to make safety inspections.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-quake-survivors-wait-for-kin-to-return">Nepal quake survivors wait for kin to return</a>, Sagar Budhathoki
There are now earthquake early alert systems available that give up to 30 second warnings by analysing earthquake P waves waves and estimating its location and intensity to send alerts either through alarm devices installed in schools, or now on Android phones.
In fact, in the last 5.7 magnitude earthquake on 3 October in Bajhang, many people with Android phones got alerts in Kathmandu even while the earthquake was happening 500km away. Personal phones therefore became seismometers and could even give prior warning of quakes if Nepal becomes part of the <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/science/earthquake-early-warning-overview">US Geological Survey’s ShakeAlert</a> system. The awkwardly acronymed NDRRMA (National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority) was given a back seat in the aftermath of the Jajarkot quake. Its chief was travelling, and the government put in place a ‘one window’ coordination unit in Karnali that, instead of facilitating a more efficient mechanism for relief delivery, has become a bottleneck.
The 3 November disaster was a dress rehearsal for a bigger catastrophe to come, and sadly, we did not come off with flying colours this time.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/demographics-of-disaster-in-nepal-quake">Demographics of disaster in Nepal quake</a>, Nepali Times

Shaking things up

Nearly 9,000 people were killed and three times as many were injured in the 25 April 2015 earthquake. Over 750,000 buildings were damaged or destroyed, including 8,000 <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/quake-was-a-learning-experience-for-nepal-s-schools">schools</a> and 30,000 classrooms.
Many thousands of lives of children were saved because the quake struck at noon on a Saturday, when schools were closed and many people were not at home.
Eight years later, the physical scars of the 2015 earthquake are still visible in Kathmandu Valley and surrounding district towns. Residential buildings are still being reconstructed, monuments are in scaffolding, and there are abandoned structures.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-a-disastrous-state">In a disastrous state</a>, Sonia Awale
Even if many of the buildings and school infrastructure wait to be reinforced, and building codes implemented, one of the best outcomes has been in disaster education.
Nepal’s schools have been involved in training search and rescue (SAR) volunteers, spreading earthquake response awareness in primary school classrooms. Proper disaster education helps everyone: children and older generations alike.
The <a href="https://www.nset.org.np/nset2012/">National Society for Earthquake Technology</a>, Nepal (NSET) creates and distributes earthquake education materials every year as part of its Earthquake Safety Day Campaign on 15 January every year, the day that commemorates the 8.3 magnitude earthquake in 1934 that destroyed much of Kathmandu.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/earthquake-vacates-villages-in-nepal">Earthquake vacates villages in Nepal</a>
Over the past several years NSET has conducted disaster response campaigns around Nepal focusing on strengthening community-based response in subjects like search and rescue, and rapid seismic damage assessment – all with the goal of building capacity at the community-level for disaster response.
In the 2015 Gorkha earthquake alone, of the 22,326 rescued alive, approximately 17,887 were saved at the community and individual level. National <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/miracle-boy-six-years-after-nepal-quake">search and rescue</a> teams as well as international agencies also played their part. The Armed Police Force and other security agencies rescued over 4,420 lives and international SAR teams rescued 19. These rescues were often in situations that were inaccessible to community members – primarily those trapped in the rubble of collapsed concrete structures.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=25092&amp;preview=true" target="_blank">Lessons Unlearnt</a>, Editorial
Disaster education can exist at the grassroots level as well. Most recently, third- and fourth-year civil engineering students from Institute of Engineering (IoE), in Pulchok began conducting training seminars for students and teachers at government secondary schools around Kathmandu.
Young Nepali engineers designed pamphlets and posters which they delivered and explained to students and teachers, even providing tools from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) for Nepal’s hard-of-hearing and deaf communities to improve accessibility since disaster impacts everyone.
The students leveraged their backgrounds in engineering to explain the physics of an earthquake, as well as <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/foundations-for-sustainable-buildings-in-nepal">concrete action to mitigating risk</a> and earthquake response. They created interactive games to quiz grade school students on what they had learned – tailoring their speech and lessons to younger audiences.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/preserving-patan-post-earthquake">Preserving Patan post-earthquake</a>
Free training for educators on how to make their classrooms more earthquake-safe were also conducted, as well as providing tips on how to talk to younger generations about <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/lessons-not-learned-from-2015-o2etq6zu">disaster risk</a>, especially for students who may not remember the 2015 earthquake.
“It is important to educate young people about earthquake preparedness,” says Sagar Khanal, a fourth year engineering student. “There was positive feedback from students and teachers and it showed it was useful. This experience has strengthened our resolve to make a positive impact in our community”.
From the achievements of larger organisations like NSET to a more grassroots approach by the next-generation of engineers and everything in between, the disaster education experience in Nepal has been positive.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/turkey-and-nepal-face-similar-seismic-risks">Turkey and Nepal face similar seismic risks</a>, Surya Narayan Shrestha

Rachael Lau

Back to classroom for earthquake preparedness

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a03c9c7e80680e0d7029jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption></figure>As Nepal prepared to mark National Earthquake Safety Day on 16 January to commemorate the 8.3 magnitude disaster that hit Kathmandu in 1934, the country went into mourning for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/pokhara-bound-flight-crashes-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the air crash in Pokhara</a>.There were 72 people on board and there are likely no survivors. This was the worst disaster in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/60-years-of-living-dangerously/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s domestic aviation</a>, and the highest number of casualties after two crashes of international flights one-after-another in Kathmandu in 1992.The message from these tragedies is that Nepal is a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">disaster-prone country</a> — either human induced or natural. But even though earthquakes, landslides or floods may be ‘natural phenomena’ the disasters are more destructive because of manmade causes.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a0409c7e80680e0d702apng.png" alt="" width="640" height="592">Social media posts have condemned the coalition government’s decision to mark the crash with a day off. Most said it should have been taken as a day of reckoning about preventing and being prepared for all kinds of disasters.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a0449c7e80680e0d702bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1365"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/preparing-for-the-next-big-earthquake-in-nepal" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">1934 earthquake</a> was epicentre in eastern Nepal, and killed at least 16,000 people in Nepal and India. Historical records show that a temblor of that magnitude hits Nepal at least once every 100 years, while smaller quakes are more frequent.“2015 was not a mega earthquake, it is still due,” warns Surya Narayan Shrestha, Executive Director of the National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET).He adds that there is a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/mind-the-gap/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">large seismic gap in western Nepal</a> where there has not been a big earthquake since 1505, meaning that so much tectonic energy has accumulated that the region is overdue for a disaster of more than 8 magnitude.The Indian Plate is converging towards the Eurasian Plate at an average rate of 25mm a year, which is what makes Nepal and the region an active seismic zone.“We have been lucky that we haven’t had a mega-quake yet in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/past-disasters-foretold/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the seismic gap</a> between Pokhara all the way to Dadeldhura but this also means we could witness the biggest one yet given the stress accumulated,” says Anil Pokhrel, Chief Executive of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA).“In fact, it will be catastrophic,” Pokhrel earns. “The 1505 earthquake killed one-third of Nepal’s population even back then.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a0479c7e80680e0d702cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="516"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>An 8M+ earthquake in faraway <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/epicentre-of-two-disasters-in-west-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">western Nepal</a> will not spare Kathmandu either, and half of Nepal’s population will be directly affected. Experts estimate that there will be more than 100,000 casualties and over 1.5 million buildings will collapse across the country. Large parts of northern India will also be hit“This is the level of disaster the whole country needs to be prepared for, not just western Nepal,” warns NSET’s Shrestha.There is therefore no time to waste <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/concrete-lessons-of-2015/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reinforcing infrastructure</a>, but that is a tall order since a survey showed that two-thirds of all the buildings in Nepal will collapse in a major earthquake.The 7.8M quake in 2015 was a warning, and it has had some effect in increasing preparedness. In fact, Nepal’s record of reconstruction is noted as a success given the scale of destruction in the aftermath. But similar levels of preparedness is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/guest-editorial-better-late-than-never,891" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">needed now for the Next Big One</a>.There is also a general <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/false-sense-of-security-about-strength-of-reinforced-concrete-structures,2240" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">misconception that concrete buildings are safer</a> because they survived the 2015 earthquake. But experts say if the shaking had lasted just a few seconds longer and if the intensity of the tremor was a bit higher, most reinforced concrete buildings in Kathmandu would have also collapsed.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a04a9c7e80680e0d702djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="750"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a04d9c7e80680e0d702ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="1500"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a0509c7e80680e0d702fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="750">Cement buildings are safer only when they do not flout building standards. Otherwise they are death traps because Nepal just does not have enough rescue equipment and skills required for <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Search-locate-%20rescue-in-collapsed-concrete-houses,3676" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">search and rescue from concrete structures</a>.“Concrete is among the most complex of construction materials and requires stringent quality control,” says Anil Pokhrel. “The quality of some of these do not meet quality standards.”Substandard cement means weak concrete, not just in urban centres but across Nepal as cement construction spreads to even remote parts of the country due to road expansion.Most recently, the 8 November 2022 6.6M <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/earthquake-vacates-villages-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">earthquake in Doti</a> killed 6 people while nearly 15,000 houses and 215 public buildings were damaged in four districts in the far west. A post-mortem of the disaster found that not even 5% of buildings in the affected areas followed even the most basic building codes.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a0539c7e80680e0d7030jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="1600"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>This means very low awareness among the public as well as municipal authorities about <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/headline/Ruined-future,3471" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">enforcing building codes</a>. This points to an urgent need to capacitate engineers to design earthquake resistant structures, and masons who can build them accordingly. But most important is monitoring building compliance.“Knowledge alone is not enough to save lives, we need people to change their attitude and practice,” says Shrestha. “As it is, we have already forgotten the destruction post-2015 earthquake and people are now building back the way they used to. People must invest a bit more to ensure that their buildings are safe while the government can provide technical expertise.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a0579c7e80680e0d7031jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a05a9c7e80680e0d7032jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427">Engineers say it costs only 10% more to make a traditional building earthquake resistant. This means the building will not suffer major damage in moderate tremors, and even if it collapses with bigger shaking it gives people time to escape. Even if 100% earthquake proof buildings were possible to make, they would be too expensive.For existing buildings, however, there is an option of retrofitting them, but should not cost more than one-third of what a new building does.<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/not-out-of-danger-the-big-one" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Retrofitting can be a lifesaver</a>. In the 2015 earthquakes, none of the school buildings in and around Kathmandu Valley retrofitted by the NSET suffered any damage, and in fact served as shelters in the aftermath.As it is, green and open spaces which acted as shelters from earthquakes in the past are being traded for residential and commercial buildings across cities. But NSET with support of various municipalities and Kathmandu Valley Development Authority has recently mapped 1,000 open spaces, most of them in Kathmandu Valley which can be viewed at <a href="http://bipadportal.gov.np" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">bipadportal.gov.np</a>.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a05c9c7e80680e0d7033jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="345"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Close to 8,000 schools and 30,000 classrooms were damaged or destroyed in 2015. The fact that it struck on a Saturday saved the lives of thousands of students which should be taken as a sign to reinforce school buildings all over Nepal with topmost priority.“If the 2015 earthquake had happened on any other day than Saturday, we estimate that at least 30,000 students could have been killed,” says Shrestha.NSET has managed to retrofit 2,000 schools across Nepal in a joint collaboration with the government, but there are 32,000 government schools in Nepal with 80,000 school buildings between them. More than half of them are vulnerable to future quakes.It is not only the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lessons-not-learned-from-2015/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">school infrastructure</a> that needs to be reinforced, but their curriculum has to be designed in such a way that students and teachers alike know the dangers and how to protect themselves. The schools need to be prepared at all times with frequent emergency drills and training about earthquake safety.While <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/lessons-still-not-learnt/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">preparedness is the key</a> to reducing the damage, efficient response in the aftermath can save the most lives in the ‘golden hour’. With the spread of concrete buildings, Nepal needs to immediately invest in equipment for collapsed structure search and rescue like snake-eye and robo-worm cameras, acoustic, thermal and motion sensors to detect human life under the rubble.Another urgent measure is to plan stockpiling of immediate digging and relief material for which the government is building provincial as well as district warehouses, many of which are under construction.A recent study undertaken by NDRRMA titled ‘Emergency Preparedness and Response Assessment 2022-2030’ found that Nepal needs nearly $200 million in the next seven years to prepare for future disasters like the one projected for western Nepal.“Given the sheer scale of the overdue earthquake in the west, we need to invest a lot more in disaster preparedness, from constructing stronger structures and retrofitting our homes, schools and hospitals to developing a better response mechanism,” says Anil Pokhrel.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a0609c7e80680e0d7034jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="829">With the understanding that financing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">disaster risk reduction</a> is more effective and economical than a post-disaster response like search, rescue, relief, rehabilitation, reconstruction and recovery, the government has developed the Nepal Disaster Risk Financing Strategy so the state plans to provide insurance for all the public and private buildings in an event of a major earthquake.NSET’s Surya Narayan Shrestha agrees: “Given how disaster-prone we know Nepal is, we must seriously put our efforts and money into reducing the risks.”

In a disastrous state

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721e249c7e80680e0bd52bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="946" height="1261"/><figcaption>SCENIC, BUT ALSO SEISMIC: Kyanjin in Langtang Valley has resurrected after the 2015 earthquake, but even in this remote area, most of the rebuilt hotels are multistorey concrete structures. Cement and steel rods were lifted there by helicopter. The new buildings have also changed the cultural landscape of this ancient monastery village. Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>The reconstruction of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/building-back-unsafe,3674" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">private and public buildings damaged in the 2015 earthquake</a> is nearly complete. Now it is time to also focus on being prepared for the next big disaster.Himalayan seismologists have long warned that a megaquake is overdue in western Nepal. The last big earthquake to hit the region was in 1205, and it was so powerful that it killed a king in Kathmandu, and set off a cataclysmic avalanche to create Pokhara and its lakes.So much tectonic tension has accumulated below <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/epicentre-of-two-disasters-in-west-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">western Nepal</a> since that it is ready to snap. A 8+ magnitude earthquake there will also shake up the rest of the country as well as northern India. It is not a matter of if, but when.“We have done a commendable job with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/restoring-a-piece-of-nepals-history/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reconstruction</a> given the scale of the disaster in 2015, but outside of those 14 districts we are not prepared at all for the next big quake,” warns Surya Narayan Shrestha of the National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET).The importance of preparedness was highlighted by the fact that schools retrofitted by NSET all survived the 2015 earthquake. They even served as shelters as <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/concrete-planning/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">aftershocks</a> rocked the region.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/falling-through-the-cracks/">Falling through the cracks</a>, Sahina Shrestha<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721e289c7e80680e0bd52cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1750" height="645">Adds Shrestha: “Retrofitting public buildings should be the topmost priority now, it is the best cost-effective solution for a seismically active and resource limited country like ours. So in the next 10-15 years, we must take up a campaign to continually retrofit schools across Nepal.”The fact that most <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/concrete-planning/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reinforced concrete</a> structures survived the 2015 earthquake convinced Nepalis that cement houses are stronger. As the road network expands, cement has now reached the remotest parts of Nepal – but experts warn that if the raw materials do not meet quality standards and proper construction methods are not followed, concrete structures can be even more dangerous in an earthquake.“Cement and concrete have given people a false sense of security after 2015,” says Anil Pokhrel of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA). “We have to enforce building codes through the municipalities by giving them clear roles, technical know-how, and financial and human resources.”Indeed, the Authority is getting ready for the next big earthquake by spending Rs350 million to buy rescue equipment for collapsed concrete structures, and training Armed Police Force (APF) and Nepal Army on how to use them.Public misconception about concrete, coupled with people forgetting the horror of 25 April 2015, has led to<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> haphazard growth and construction</a> in Kathmandu Valley. It is not earthquakes that kill people, but poorly built houses.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721e2b9c7e80680e0bd52djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="412" height="198">The Gongabu neighbourhood of Kathmandu saw <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/05/01/deceived-and-dead/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">hundreds of casualties</a> when concrete structures with weak foundations and illegally added floors flattened like pancakes seven years ago. In Dhapakhel, an eight-storey engineering college collapsed into a heap of rubble.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/concrete-planning/">Concrete planning</a>, EditorialIf it was not a Saturday, the death toll of 8,890 in the 2015 earthquake would have been several times higher. More than 7,000 schools were either destroyed or severely damaged in the quake.“Public memory of a disaster usually lasts four years, and people now are a lot less careful about raw material and construction methods,” adds Pokhrel.Increasing urban pressure has meant that people in Kathmandu and other cities have <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lessons-not-learned-from-2015/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">forgotten the lessons learned</a>, and have gone back to constructing substandard structures flouting building codes.Warns NSET’s Shrestha: “We are haphazardly building concrete structures again. The next earthquake above 8 magnitude probable in western Nepal could be a catastrophe."In Kathmandu Valley, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/khokana-and-bungamati-strive-to-save-heritage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rebuilding of ancient towns</a> like Sankhu, Bungamati, Harisiddhi and Tokha that were destroyed in 2015 has been slower than that of the Darbar Squares of Patan or Bhaktapur. And here the challenge is to maintain the original architectural heritage of the historic towns.Harisiddhi was the first town to come up with a technical proposal to retain its traditional Newa skyline, but without much success, admits engineer Bijay Maharjan.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/rebuilding-resilience-7-years-later/">Rebuilding resilience 7 years later</a>, Anil Pokhrel<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721e2c9c7e80680e0bd52ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>“A lot of people are now aware that they have to build safer houses and they also use higher quality construction materials, but we largely failed to maintain traditional architecture which are more costly,” he adds.Harisiddhi Ward 29 chair Ganesh Kumar Maharjan is planning to recontest in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-local-election-gives-power-back-to-people/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">May local elections</a>, and when asked if his town is prepared for the next big earthquake, he says, “In Nepal, we are always waiting for the next big one, and we can never be fully prepared. Our preparedness should not just be awareness but real work on the ground.”Nearby, the chair of Harisiddhi’s Ward 28 Rajesh Maharjan wants to provide alternative income generation sources to prevent local communities from selling their ancestral land to developers.Seven years after 2015, and despite successes in reconstruction, building standards are poor. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/lessons-still-not-learnt/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Much more needs to be done</a> to enforce seismic resistant structures, and invest in preparedness.Says Surya Narayan Shrestha: “We are in the business of saving lives. All municipalities across Nepal need to mandatorily enforce building codes with strict monitoring. That is the only way we can prevent buildings from killing people in the next earthquake.”Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-history-of-heritage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The history of heritage</a>, Ashish Dhakal

Concrete lessons of 2015

<figure><img width="2067" height="1494" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721e209c7e80680e0bd529jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Nepali Times editorial #740 9-15 January 2015</figcaption></figure>On 25 April 2015 at exactly 11:56, the ground beneath Kathmandu Valley started shaking. Houses built on the soft alluvium of the former lakebed bobbed and swayed like boats in the sea.Brick and clay <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Monumental-loss,2215" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">monuments and homes collapsed</a> in clouds of dust. Had the duration, intensity and frequency of the earthquake been more severe, reinforced concrete buildings would have also come down. Because cement houses were spared, the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Search-locate-%20rescue-in-collapsed-concrete-houses,3676" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">public perception</a> is that reinforced concrete buildings can withstand severe earthquakes.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/rebuilding-resilience-7-years-later/">Rebuilding resilience 7 years later</a>, Anil PokhrelWhile that is partly true, if the shaking had gone on for more than 1 minute, if it was 8 magnitude or more, or if the frequency of the shock waves was different, many of Kathmandu’s <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/building-back-unsafe,3674" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">concrete structures would have also come down</a>. Much of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/restoring-a-piece-of-nepals-history/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reconstruction</a> after the 2015 earthquake is now complete, although there are still families waiting for money to rebuild. But we still have to be prepared for the next one. And the way to be ready is to retrofit schools and hospitals, ensure open spaces for shelters, and preposition rescue equipment, water and other essentials. Teams need training in Collapsed Structure Search and Rescue. Compared to older buildings,<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/mind-the-gap/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> search and rescue</a> inside the pancaked ruin of a reinforced concrete high-rise is a whole different exercise.Most of the concrete structures that collapsed in 2015 were illegally built high-rise blocks in Gongabu. Ironically, an eight storey engineering college in Dhapasi was also reduced to rubble. Its building permit was only for three floors. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/falling-through-the-cracks/">Falling through the cracks</a>, Sahina Shrestha <img width="412" height="198" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721e239c7e80680e0bd52ajpeg.jpg" alt="">Had the earthquake struck on a weekday, hundreds of students and staff would have been inside the college. Tens of thousands of students across central Nepal were saved because the disaster happened on a weekend.  Concrete structure rescue needs specialised robo-worm cameras, snake-eye acoustic, thermal and motion sensors, and human life detector tools like continuous wave Doppler radar and equipment to measure carbon dioxide levels from survivors. Fortunately, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) is putting together a wish list of Rs350 million for such specialised equipment, and has already started training search and rescue teams from the Armed Police Force and Nepal Army. Their role will be vital in finding and extricating survivors.  This is not panic mongering. We look back at 2015 in this issue of Nepali Times in order to ensure that state agencies and the public start <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/lessons-still-not-learnt/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">preparing to be prepared</a>. What happened in Gongabu is a microcosm of what the aftermath of a future mega quake in Nepal will look like.  In January 2015, four months before the earthquake, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/earthquakes-dont-kill-people-weak-houses-and-bad-planning-do,1930" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">we reported in this space</a> that earthquakes are not 'natural' disasters, they kill people because of weak buildings. An 8+ magnitude earthquake could occur in western Nepal at any time.  Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-history-of-heritage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The history of heritage</a>, Ashish Dhakal Concrete is good if quality standards are met, the steel rods are properly installed, and building codes are adhered to. But many pre- and post-2015 structures in Kathmandu do not meet these criteria. Things are far worse in western Nepal. If new reinforced concrete houses are not properly made, you do not even need a 7 magnitude earthquake to bring them down. In the 2015 earthquake, nearly 4,000 emergency crew from 19 countries arrived in Kathmandu with Concrete Structure Search and Rescue equipment. Much of it was not needed. It was local first responders, Nepal Police and Army that rescued 5,000 survivors with simple shovels and spades. Next time, it may not be so easy.  The 7th anniversary of the 2015 disaster is also a time to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/epicentre-of-two-disasters-in-west-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">turn our attention to western Nepal</a>, and start with retrofitting schools and hospitals, and enforcing building codes. Although 7,000 schools were damaged in 2015, most of those that had been retrofitted survived intact.  We know what to do. We just need to do it before the next one. Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-traditional-seismic-resistant-designs/">Nepal’s traditional seismic resistant designs</a>, Sheilin Teo

Concrete planning

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721df19c7e80680e0bd515jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>All photos: NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption></figure>Commemorating a national tragedy like <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/photos-nepal-earthquake-2015,2207" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the 2015 earthquakes</a> is a time to mourn the loss of lives of fellow citizens, but also a chance to ask ourselves how to avert such humanitarian crises in future.As we mark the 7th anniversary of the earthquake for the first time after the completion of post-earthquake reconstruction, the question of saving lives and infrastructure from future disasters is even more urgent.Let us rewind the clock to 25 April, 2015. It was a Saturday, so schools and offices were closed. At mid-day, most people were outside their houses. The monsoon had not arrived, and the ground was firm.If it had not been a Saturday, hundreds of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/earthquake-an-opportunity-to-rebuilt-education-system-not-just-fallen-schools,2336" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">thousands of students</a> would have been inside school buildings. If it was midnight, most of us would have been at home fast asleep.Even worse, if the 2015 earthquake had struck us in the midst of a monsoon downpour, immediate and large-scale rescue and relief work could have been almost impossible. In villages of Sindhupalchok, where nearly 3,000 people were killed, thousands of survivors could have been left in the lurch for days.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721df49c7e80680e0bd516jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="412" height="198">It was our sheer luck that the earthquake hit us on a weekend. Yet, it claimed nearly 9,000 lives and injured over 22,000 people. The quake also damaged private houses, public buildings, schools, health facilities, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-history-of-heritage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">heritage sites</a>, and other critical infrastructure in as many as 32 districts, causing an estimated economic loss of $9 billion.Thousands of families rendered homeless by the earthquake spent several monsoons and winters in makeshift shelters. Children resumed their studies in temporary learning centres. It was difficult to imagine how Nepal would carry out such a massive reconstruction campaign within a tight five plus one year deadline.To be sure, the initial phase of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/rebuilding-five-years-after-2015-quake/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">post-earthquake reconstruction</a> was slow. But the National Reconstruction Authority (NRA) did a commendable job introducing frameworks, guidelines, and procedures necessary for allocating grants for reconstruction of private houses.It prepared the Post Disaster Reconstruction Framework identified priority sectors and financing needs. The NRA coordinated with multiple government agencies, development partners, private sector, and communities in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lessons-not-learned-from-2015/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rebuilding schools</a>, health facilities, heritage sites and other public infrastructure.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721df59c7e80680e0bd517jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1250" height="834"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The NRA has set an example of planned and systematic reconstruction within a tight deadline. It was able to serve as an example despite the Covid-19 crisis that followed. Now that the NRA is dissolved, its remaining responsibility has been handed over to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA).The creation of the NDRRMA is in itself a paradigm shift in Nepal's approach to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-disaster-resilient-nepal-is-possible/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">disaster risk management</a>: from being mostly response-centric to prioritisation of understanding risk, improved governance, financing, including preparedness for effective response, recovery and reconstruction.The NDRRMA has not only taken on the NRA's remaining task of reconstruction, but also a responsibility to increase resilience during future disasters.We as a nation seem to have short-term memory. We easily forget <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/building-back-unsafe,3674" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">how narrowly we escaped death</a> just a few years ago. A lot of things could have gone wrong on this day seven years ago. The 2015 earthquake was not as destructive as it could have been because of few favorable situations. We may not be as lucky next time.We have some urgent tasks: strict implementation of proper <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/preparing-for-future-shocks,3472" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">building codes</a>, introduction of insurance instruments for our houses and public property, training human resources for post-disaster rescue operations, establishment of effective multi-hazard early warning systems, and massive awareness campaigns about safety and preparedness.Our municipal governments have designated jurisdictions to manage disaster risks. However, building codes are being implemented only in selected urban municipalities. We need to strictly implement these codes in rural municipalities as well. Adhering to the building codes is not only necessary for receiving bank loans, but it is also important to save our lives.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721df89c7e80680e0bd518jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="1500"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721dfa9c7e80680e0bd519jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="750">As part of the post-earthquake reconstruction campaign, we have built over 800,000 earthquake-resilient houses. We have also built over 7,000 earthquake-safe schools, over 750 health facilities, and over 650 government buildings. Such a massive scale of construction of earthquake-safe structures has increased earthquake resilience in 32 districts affected by the 2015 earthquakes.But another mega earthquake could hit other parts of the country where most structures are not earthquake-proof and could collapse easily. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/past-disasters-foretold/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Western Nepal</a> has not been shaken by a mega earthquake in 500 years, and enough tectonic pressure has built up underneath this region. An earthquake as powerful as the 2015 quake could be far more catastrophic in this region because of the poor implementation of building codes there.A <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/lessons-still-not-learnt/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">disaster teaches us valuable lessons</a> so we can prepare for future ones. But we have also learned the wrong lesson from the 2015 earthquake. When we saw mud-mortar houses collapsing in many old settlements even as concrete structures remained intact, we drew a false conclusion that concrete houses are stronger and safer.A concrete house can withstand a huge earthquake only if it is built properly. A mud mortar house can be equally or stronger if there are adequate horizontal and vertical bands. So, when another mega earthquake hits cities like Kathmandu, we will likely see more <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/A-concrete-future,2251" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">concrete houses collapsing</a>. In preparation, we are buying concrete cutter machines along with collapsed structure search and rescue equipment.Now that we have wrapped up the post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction, we need to focus our attention on building a more resilient Nepal. This is possible but only if we shake up our complacent mindset and expect another mega earthquake to hit us at any time. Even while reading this article.Anil Pokhrel is Chief Executive of National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA).

Rebuilding resilience 7 years later

<figure><img width="640" height="359" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171144/636bd96e9c7e80680e080212jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: BIKRAM RAI</figcaption></figure>Thirty-seven people were killed when a landslide on 12 July tore through the settlement of Lidi of Sindhupalchok district. More than half of them were women. When another landslide in nearby Barabise on 11 August killed 31 people, 20 were women. Most of the 15 still buried under the debris are women.  A month later, another massive flashflood in Dhorpatan of Baglung district washed away nearly the entire village, 22 people were killed and 15 are still missing. Of the dead and missing, 21 are women and 16 men. More women have been killed also in landslides in Myagdi of Tanahu and Parbat districts earlier this year. Nepal’s fragile Himalayan terrain gives it one of the highest fatality rates in the world from landslides and flash floods. And 2020 has been particularly destructive with three times more casualties compared to previous years. So far 291 people have lost their lives, 67 are still missing, and 223 have been injured in 481 landslides across the country between 1 April to 13 September.Women bear the brunt of most disasters like floods, earthquakes and landlsides in Nepal because the countryside has been ‘feminised’ by the outmigration of men. And it is the women who tend to be inside the house more often than men.For example, the 25 April 2015 earthquake struck just before noon on a spring day. The men were mostly out in the fields sowing maize, while women were indoors cooking or doing home chores. Of the total 8,193 fatalities in the 2015 earthquake, 55% (4,497) were women. Even among the children killed, girls (17%) outnumbered boys  (15%). It was only in Kathmandu city that more men than women were kiled five years ago."Women are more likely than men to die from an outbreak or a disaster because they have less access to information and seldom participate in disaster learning skills,” says Sirjana Tamang, vice-chair of Jugal village of Sindhupalchok which saw multiple landslides this monsoon. “Socio-cultural perceptions of sexuality and traditional beliefs about gender responsibility also put women at greater risk in disasters.” <figure><img width="966" height="634" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171144/636bd9719c7e80680e080213jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Casualties of the 2015 Nepal earthquake.</figcaption></figure>This trend is prevalent worldwide. The Asian Development Bank's 2013 study found that women had higher mortality rates than men in major disasters in Asia. Of those killed in the April 1991 cyclone in Bangladesh, 91% were women, and 67% of the casualties in Aceh of Indonesia in the 2004 tsunami were women.  Researchers from the London School of Economics and the University of Essex studied major outbreaks in 141 countries around the world from 1981 to 2002. They concluded more women than men died in the disasters. The Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) also concluded that women are more at risk from disasters than men. The findings were published in its 2019 report ‘The Hindu Kush Himalayan Assessment’ which analysed statistics from the 2015 and of other natural disasters of the last few decades in the Himalaya. This reflects on the Women's Resilience Index (WRI) that assesses countries’ capacity for risk reduction in disaster and recovery. Nepal performed poorly scoring only 45.2 out of 100 points in the list compiled by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and ActionAid. "It’s not that women are more affected in disasters, but their different role in society does lead to more impact,” says Basanta Sapkota of Nepal’s Ministry of Forest and Environment. “Women also have limited access to disaster prevention systems. There is also language barrier.”  ICIMOD’s research also concluded that gender inequality reduces women's access to early warning systems, and that they are more vulnerable because rescue and management are not targeted at them. Much of the information and decision-making process about early warning systems and pre-disaster rescue is under the purview of men.  Similarly, ADB reports that gender issues have not been adequately addressed in intervening in natural disasters. Lack of access and control for women in post-disaster situations, including shelters, transportation and food, is another major reason for their risk. There have also been many cases of sexual violence against women in rescue camps post-disasters. Therefore, it is not enough to just tally the total fatalities  when discussing the impact of the disaster on women, say experts. The risk is also heightened by women’s reproductive role: mothers of new-borns or pregnant women also have to care for their babies. Reduction in food productivity, loss of livestock and shortage of water after a disaster also disproportionately affects women.  Climate change expert Ngamindra Dahal says women are also more affected by slow-moving disasters like climate change. In fact, women and children are more at risk in all three phases: pre-, during and post-disasters. In the aftermath of a disaster, women are less likely to find work, and more likely to be responsible for their families. "Women don't have much of a role in making a disaster worse, but the impact is greater on them," says Dahal. "Planning and investment should be focused on women to reduce the impact of disasters and enable them." The government has enacted some laws and policies addressing disaster management and preparedness: National Strategy for Disaster Management, Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act, and Climate Change Policy. However, they either do not have a clear perspective on gender vulnerabilities, nor programs targeting women at risk.  Increasing women's participation in training and groups such as rehearsals, rescue teams, and first aid for disaster relief could be a start to bridging this gap.

Why more women die in Nepal’s natural disasters

Epidemics are nothing new in Nepal. In fact, the country’s history is littered with references to frequent outbreaks of cholera, influenza, measles and other disease that killed thousands at a time Nepal.Yet, despite knowledge about prevention or the availability of vaccines, Nepalis still continue to die in large numbers. An outbreak of diarrhoea killed 200 people, mostly children, in Jajarkot in 2009. Last year’s unprecedented eruption of <a href="https://tropmedhealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s41182-020-0194-1" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://tropmedhealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s41182-020-0194-1&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586755561427000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF2kQRkqfQlK6HcTgAWijq2RpcGaQ">dengue in Kathmandu</a> infected 15,000 and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586755561427000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEBf6yExopyyX2QWQrwe2mffPJ09w">killed at least a dozen people</a>.So, for Nepal the only difference between the coronavirus pandemic and previous disease outbreaks is that it is global in scope, and it has wrecked the economy. The government has been more proactive this time, compared to previous epidemics in taking strict measures to prevent the spread, like the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-covid-19-lockdown-extended-till-7-april/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-covid-19-lockdown-extended-till-7-april/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586755561428000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHcPke1rqEHuZS0-wb1tig9mHFzYw">lockdown</a> which has now lasted nearly three weeks.Even so, experts say Nepal’s response was unnecessarily delayed. Nepal was one of the first countries outside China to report a case of COVID-19 when a Nepali student who had returned from Wuhan tested positive for the virus on 24 January. He later recovered, and right new cases have been detected since, but it was only in the second week of April that the government finally began mass testing in western Nepal and Tarai districts, where there have been returning migrant workers from India.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/remembering-a-pandemic-100-years-ago/">Remembering a pandemic 100 years ago</a>, Buddha Basnyat<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121112/636b8b679c7e80680e06b298jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4096" height="2730"/><figcaption>A doctor based in Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital explains on COVID-19. Photo: BIKRAM RAI</figcaption></figure>The mosquito-borne haemmorhagic fever is already being reported in all seven provinces. Cases have been arriving in hospitals which are already on high alert of COVID-19. A double epidemic would mean medical facilities will be overwhelmed.“We are not new to epidemics. Thousands of children continue to die of easily preventable diarrhoea every year and there will be another dengue outbreak this summer, but where is the preparedness?” asks Gangalal Tuladhar, a disaster expert and politburo member of the ruling Nepal Communist Party. “It is a primary duty of a responsible government to prepare for any disaster or an epidemic before it strikes.”<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-is-a-microcosm-of-all-of-the-changes-in-world-health/">“Nepal is a microcosm of all of the changes in world health”</a>, Nepali TimesIt is ironic that a senior member of a ruling political party that commands a near two-thirds majority in Parliament is the one complaining about the government being lax. To be sure, the government has been strict in enforcing the lockdown, and Prime Minister Oli hinted during a conference call with provincial chief ministers on Saturday that the lockdown may need to be extended because the virus was spreading in India.Also, local government have been crediting with taking effective prevention measures, including house-to-house surveillance and monitoring of high-risk individuals. Swab collection and mass testing of high risk groups has started in earnest.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/confusion-persists-about-lockdown-rules/">Confusion persists about lockdown rules</a>, Alisha Sijapati<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121112/636b8b6b9c7e80680e06b299jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Still, Nepal’s lack of preparedness to fight public health emergencies has been similar to the apathy shown about enforcing building codes and having a rescue and relief strategy in place for future mega-earthquakes.It took the devastating 2015 earthquake to finally push the policymakers to develop the Disaster Risk and Management Act in 2017 – more than five years after it was languishing in the legislature. Unlike the Natural Calamity Act 1982 that is centred on the relief, the new Act listed 22 kinds of disasters in Nepal and it focuses on preparedness. Epidemics however have been categorised under ‘non-disaster’ in the new Act.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/rebuilding-five-years-after-2015-quake/">Rebuilding five years after 2015 quake</a>, Alisha SijapatiEpidemics has been lumped together with famine, fire, pest or micro-bacterial attack, industrial accident, toxic gas hazard, chemical radiation leakage, gas explosion, toxic food intake, environmental pollution, deforestation, physical infrastructure damage and accidents during disaster relief.“Placing snakebites and outbreaks together itself shows that we haven’t really understood what an epidemic means. There is a huge difference in how we have to deal with them,” says Baburam Marasini, former head of the Epidemiology and Disease Control Division.The emergence of COVID-19 on top of the reoccurrence of pre-existing diseases mean countries need health institutions with medical staff equipped to deal with epidemics, research wing to undertake new studies on emerging diseases, and a strong system that can take immediate steps to control spread of a contagion.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/rebuilding-five-years-after-2015-quake/">The climate connection to Covid-19</a>, Rastraraj Bhandari“We need to make laws taking infectious diseases into account, strengthen local infrastructure as well as increase capacity of the health sector,” Marasini says.  “We have to turn COVID-19 into an opportunity to build a new health structure and strengthen existing laws.”Chronic lack of coordination and turf battles between the Department of Health Services, National Public Health Laboratory, Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Epidemiology and Epidemic Management Section, Teku Hospital and Animal Disease Investigation and Control Division have added to the problem.Says public health expert Madhav Chaulagain: “We are unprepared not just for new emerging epidemics but for the pre-existing diseases and seasonal disasters too.”<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-nepals-weather-erratic-is-the-new-normal/">In Nepal’s weather, erratic is the new normal</a>, Olivia Molden and Tyler McMahonClose to three years after Nepal adopted a decentralised federal structure, provincial governments have to fly COVID-19 samples to Kathmandu in lack of regional laboratories and hospitals specialising in infectious diseases.The root of the problem is a culture not primed for prevention, but for cure. Also a ‘ke garne’ fatalistic attitude that tends to leave solving a known problem until after the disaster hits.“We think about building modern hospitals to cure people. What developing countries like us should really be focusing on is prevention and preparedness,” says Gangalal Tuladhar. “We are lucky we still have time to prepare for COVID-19. It is time to work on prevention.”Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/cash-flow-crisis-for-migrants-and-families/">Cash flow crisis for migrants and families</a>, Upasana Khadka<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/what-is-novel-about-the-novel-coronavirus/">What is novel about the novel coronavirus?</a>, Buddha Basnyat

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