Rainfall data from eastern Nepal collected over the past 70 years point to a strong <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-waste-land">correlation between chronic drought and outmigration</a>. Repeated and more frequent monsoon failures forced more and more people to abandon villages.&nbsp; Terathum, Dhankuta, Panchthar and Taplejung districts lost more than 40% of their population between 2001 and 2021. Archival data of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology shows that rainfall was below the annual national average for almost every year since the 1960s in what is supposed to be the wettest part of the country.&nbsp; In Panchakanya village of Terathum 40% of residents left in those 20 years. A nearby village, Thoklung, lost 42% of its population. Across the Tamor River, 44% of the people left the village of Kurule. A third of the inhabitants of Symbarumba in Panchthar left for the plains or cities.&nbsp; “People are still leaving. Those who have not migrated are also thinking about going down to Dharan or Damak,” says Chathar Ward 4 Chair Pushpa Karki, who says there were 2,500 votes cast in this ward in 2017 and in the 2022 local election there were only 1,125 ballots.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-climate-crisis-is-a-water-crisis-in-the-himalaya">The climate crisis is a water crisis in the Himalaya</a>, Sonia Awale To be sure, there are other factors behind this exodus which is happening right across Nepal’s mountains, such as a dearth of well-paying jobs, poor health care, and few opportunities for higher education. But the main reason is that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/high-and-dry">droughts</a> destroy crops.&nbsp; “There was a severe drought in the summer of 2018, the maize plants dried in their stalks and turned to straw,” remembers Tara Kharel Dhakal, Deputy Mayor of Chathar in Terathum. “People ran out of food and were desperate. We declared an emergency.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240406020432_abeec2acd7e0b1986c5a101109365ea57f70e81925fb522a5e2edf191eefbd98.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240406020432_abeec2acd7e0b1986c5a101109365ea57f70e81925fb522a5e2edf191eefbd98" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate → crisis → drought → food → deficit → migration"> <figcaption>HIGH AND DRY, LOW AND WET: Parched fields above the Tamor River in Panchakanya village in eastern Nepal in March (above) and irrigated bamboo-fringed terrace farms in Taplejung.</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240406020432_d56cdd7be3761fac279a5add402d766cceef89bf1a535066acd30576e81b8613.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20240406020432_d56cdd7be3761fac279a5add402d766cceef89bf1a535066acd30576e81b8613" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate → crisis → drought → food → deficit → migration"> </figure>  Rainfall data for Terathum in 2018 corroborates that there was almost no rain in winter, and to make things worse, the district only saw half of its usual rain that monsoon.&nbsp; The rainfall gauges are located near the tops of mountains, where there is usually more precipitation. So the slopes below likely got even less rain than was recorded.&nbsp; Farmers had no irrigation systems to fall back on. <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Recharging-the-mountains,3465#google_vignette">Springs are rare and have gone dry,</a> and the Tamor River is too far down the mountain.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240406020444_9d23945324a19dfcecf26cafe19a9ac9cc4a11abfde5bde9e4bbbea9c64ca916.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20240406020444_9d23945324a19dfcecf26cafe19a9ac9cc4a11abfde5bde9e4bbbea9c64ca916" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate → crisis → drought → food → deficit → migration"> <figcaption>BROWN AND GREEN: Constrasting colours of fields in Terathum between those without irrigation (foreground, above), and with irrigation from a side stream. The glacier-fed Tamor River has plenty of water in the dry season (below) but it is too far down to be pumped up the mountain.</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240406020444_d31629e168b47eb330543f3f3ac992778bccea52fe32446a776580194b143214.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20240406020444_d31629e168b47eb330543f3f3ac992778bccea52fe32446a776580194b143214" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1018" loading="lazy" alt="Climate → crisis → drought → food → deficit → migration"> </figure>  Prevailing wisdom suggests that Nepal is drier the more west you go, and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/how-the-climate-crisis-adds-to-child-marriage-in-nepal">the Karnali and Sudur Paschim regions are most drought prone</a>. Outmigration due to water scarcity in Mustang district has emptied villages. But it looks like the climate crisis is causing dry spells even in the usually wet mountains of eastern Nepal.&nbsp; Only a quarter of arable land in Nepal is irrigated, and most of that is in the Tarai. Subsistence farmers in the mountains depend on rain-fed agriculture, so when it does not rain their only option is to migrate for work. Rainfall data from measuring stations over the past 50 years or more across the eastern mountains shows that winter rain and monsoon failures have become more frequent.&nbsp; y nly 80% of the normal annual rain fell in 2018 in Mulghat, and the corn and buckwheat harvests were reduced in nearby Kurule. The local government gave cash handouts to farmers, but this did not convince people to stay. <div class="embed-block"><iframe title="Tamor river discharge at Mulghat" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-8t8ts" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/8t8ts/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="396" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div> In an average year, Jhapa and Ilam in the east get about 3,300mm of rain. Kathmandu Valley sees about 1,400mm, and Darchula in the far-west receives 700mm. The least precipitation is in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/mustang-forced-to-adapt-to-climate-crisis">Mustang</a> and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya">Dolpo in the trans-Himalayan rainshadow</a>, although even these districts have seen some freak rainfall of late.&nbsp; Even though the total annual precipitation may still be the same, often the quality of rain is different: there are damaging torrential downpours and then weeks of no rain at all.&nbsp; Watershed expert Madhukar Upadhya describes eastern Nepal’s micro-climates, where wide variations exist even within small geographical areas: “The clouds tend to drop most of their moisture on the southern slopes of the Mahabharat Range, so there is less rain on the other side.”&nbsp; Dharan, for instance, gets 1,700mm of rain, but 15km to the north in Mulghat, the annual precipitation is half that.&nbsp; Elderly farmers can recite from memory the years in which rains have failed: 1961, 1965, 1972, 1975, 1982, 1994. Their recollections tally with archival precipitation data for the region. For example, there was a downpour that dumped 385mm of rain on 23-24 June 1961, but for the next two months there was only 180mm. “I was young in 1961 and there was always either too much rain or too little, the fields were fallow and we had no food,” remembers Dikura Devi Thapaliya in Terathum. “Only those who had springs and could irrigate their fields had harvests that year.”&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/first-drought-then-downpour">First drought, then downpour</a>, Smita Magar Four years later, there was another drought that caused a famine, forcing families to forage for wild roots. In Iwa, the town council asked households that had extra grain to sell it to neighbours, but no one was willing. The villagers did not have food for the 10-day trek down to Dharan to collect government rations, so food was air dropped by the state.&nbsp; Even worse was the nationwide drought of 1972, when the British Royal Air Force helped Nepal with Hercules aircraft to drop grain by parachute in what it called Operation Khana Cascade. Some 52 tons were dropped on Taplejung and Terathum alone.&nbsp; This was the Panchayat era, and even the usually-understated government controlled news agency, RSS, filed a report from eastern Nepal about the terrible conditions: ‘The harvest of corn and buckwheat has failed in villages around Dhankuta. Rice harvests are one-third of normal. There is starvation in Terathum. Many have migrated to the Tarai or elsewhere, or are working as coolies along the Dharan-Dhankuta road.’ <div class="embed-block"><iframe title="The Rain in Dhankuta" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-gKSl5" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gKSl5/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="423" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script></div> The next serious drought was in 1982, with Terathum getting a record low of only 254mm of rain – only 38% of normal monsoon precipitation.&nbsp; The Tamor had never been so dry before that, nor has it since. Hydrological data acquired by Nepali Times show that in September 1982 river flow was only 15% of mean for that month. Ninety percent of the maize crop in the east was destroyed, paddy wilted before it could be transplanted. The rice terraces were barren.&nbsp; Nepal’s two neighbours donated grain so that villagers would not starve. More than 2,500 farmers from Terathum made the four-day trek down to Dhankuta to collect 100kg sacks of wheat from India, or maize from China. Even the desert kingdom of Saudi Arabia donated 5,000 tons of rice and 2,500 tons of wheat.&nbsp; Not much has changed in the villages of Terathum and along the banks of the Tamor since – except that there are fewer people. Farmers who remain still depend on timely and adequate rain to keep their soil watered.&nbsp; “If the gods send rain, we get to eat. Otherwise we starve,” Naramaya Tamang in Terathum puts it simply. Her farm grows enough food to feed the family for only half the year.&nbsp; Those who have property have sold it to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/unthinkable-in-the-current-climate">move to the plains</a>. The government has stopped food aid, citing new roads and letting market forces ensure supply. However, there are many like Naramaya who have fallen through the social safety net. The other thing that has changed in these mountains is that people are migrating not just to the plains, but overseas to the Gulf or Malaysia. The villages on both sides of the Tamor River are devoid of young men, and increasingly, young women. Every family has a member abroad. It is the money they send back that helps the elderly relatives survive.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240406020436_9619e4536523960ebe2edf86de43c389ba054b3dd32c5752e5bcc7d9fac9d83f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_15" data-image-id="20240406020436_9619e4536523960ebe2edf86de43c389ba054b3dd32c5752e5bcc7d9fac9d83f" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="713" loading="lazy" alt="Climate → crisis → drought → food → deficit → migration"> </figure>  Over the last 20 years, Panchthar saw the second highest number of permits to work overseas in proportion to the district’s population. Terathum ranks third on this metric and Dhankuta is sixth. The adjoining district to the west, Khotang, is number one.&nbsp; Dhanusha in the Tarai has the highest numbers of people migrating out, but most of those workers return. Here in Dhankuta, Terathum, Panchthar and Taplejung, when young people leave, most leave for good.&nbsp; The main result of the climate breakdown is the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/borderlines/grain-drain">lack of water</a>. Deficient rain and springs going dry are the main reasons why farmers are migrating, explains the Chair of Ward 3 of Chaubise village, Madan Tumsa.&nbsp; He says: “These are climate migrants. The soil is too dry to farm, and there is nothing to eat. People are not leaving to earn more, up to 80% are leaving because they cannot grow food due to the lack of water.”&nbsp; Research for this three-part series was supported by the Barbara Foundation. This is the first of a three-part series in Nepali Times analysing meteorological, hydrological and demographic data from eastern Nepal, showing the impact of the climate crisis on rainfall, farming and outmigration. The second and third installments will appear on 12 and 26 April respectively.

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Climate crisis → drought → food deficit → migration

The rugged mountains of Rukum East are all covered in late snow. After a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/first-drought-then-downpour">prolonged drought</a>, it has finally snowed, but it is too late for the high altitude meadows to grow again. They have all dried up. &nbsp; At 3,720m, visitors rarely make it to the high pasture at Ma Kharka. But even until 20 years ago, every family in the village of Lugum brought its sheep and mountain goats for grazing up here. Shepherds with their flocks spent half a year in what used to be cool, green patches of grasslands. Very few do so now. Rassa Gurung, 60, is one the last few shepherds carrying on their <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/village-of-the-climbers">ancestral occupation</a>. “I started coming here as a baby, slung over my mother’s back. We didn’t read and write back then, we all helped our parents tend the sheep,” he says. Gurung knows every corner of this pasture like the back of his hand. His sheep used to graze freely, but now he has to watch out that they do not wander into someone’s farm or enter the nearby community forest.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024021517020_1112590731e0e52430463cd0bbf6e400e24f846d284b2fc42b8010da24b7da70.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2024021517020_1112590731e0e52430463cd0bbf6e400e24f846d284b2fc42b8010da24b7da70" data-rendition-name="original" width="1750" height="995" loading="lazy" alt="Climate crisis ruins Himalayan pastoralists NT"> <figcaption>Rassa Gurung is one the last few shepherds carrying on their ancestral occupation.</figcaption> </figure>  Mt Dhaulagiri looms in the distance, and even that high up there is little snow this year. It looks like a giant dark rock. The sheep are also dying from mysterious causes. “Some 40-50 sheep die every year now, I myself have only 150 sheep now, down from 300 four years ago,” says Gurung. “Most of them die because they eat poisonous grass, as the edible grass does not grow in time. Some are eaten by leopards and bears.” He adds: “It rains when it is not supposed to and it does not snow when it is supposed to. Sometimes it does not snow till March, and other times it does not rain until June, so there is no grass to graze on.” High mountain communities are<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya"> disproportionately affected by the climate crisis</a>. This year was one of the hottest ones Nepal has experienced. “Farmers are affected directly by the increase in the average temperature. Unpredictable seasonal changes can lead to the growth of new species, and native indigenous plants disappear,” explains climate scientist Ngamindra Dahal. He adds: “Rainfall patterns have also changed. At times we have unseasonal cloudbursts, other times there is no winter rain and we get droughts. The absence of snow has affected sheep herders.”&nbsp; Indeed, new kinds of grasses have started growing and for shepherds like Gurung, there is no way to know if they are edible.&nbsp; Botanist Bhakta Bahadur Raskoti agrees that climate change has affected the growth of edible grass for sheep and goats in high mountain areas. “Because of climate change, grass species from the Tarai are now found in the mountains, while mountain grasses have moved up,” he adds. Shepherd Jore Pun, 43, used to have 350 sheep a few years ago, but now has only 250.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024021517020_6dd609e1837506d6a623b9c6217cae8b7da0909ee445a1d0d1fe13cf277fef87.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="2024021517020_6dd609e1837506d6a623b9c6217cae8b7da0909ee445a1d0d1fe13cf277fef87" data-rendition-name="original" width="1250" height="751" loading="lazy" alt="Climate crisis ruins Himalayan pastoralists. NT"> <figcaption>Jore Pun</figcaption> </figure>  Lugum used to be a large sheep farming village in Rukum East. Half of the 400 households here used to herd sheep and goats. Today, there are 500 households but only 35 are pastoralists.&nbsp; The Magar people make up the majority of the Rukum East population. To them, sheep rearing used to be a way of life here. The sheep are sacrificed during their festivals and women make clothing from their wool. With the sheep gone, these traditions are now in decline. “Our grasslands are depleting and sheep rearing has become unfeasible,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun. “Moreover, young men are moving out for jobs in the cities or overseas. They are abandoning their ancestral occupation.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/no-country-for-young-men-c89lgrrl">Many men from here have left for the Gulf</a>, Malaysia or India. Youth here are also increasingly taking the backdoor to America. Only the women, the elderly and children are left.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240215190216_a8e5bf8de837acaf13c1c9d966a3316bb7098b3d6c12da9d65323d920445c19b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20240215190216_a8e5bf8de837acaf13c1c9d966a3316bb7098b3d6c12da9d65323d920445c19b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1700" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Temperature map NT"> </figure>  Every household here has <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepalis-take-backdoor-to-the-american-dream">at least one member in the USA</a>. These families spend as high as Rs6 million to make their way there, borrowed from local lenders at high interest. The ones who remain are averse to hard work. Dilchan Pun Magar of Lugum was rearing sheep until three years ago. He had 200 of them. Unable to make a living, he also kept side jobs. He has now completely given up on sheep rearing and operates a hotel. “We couldn’t modernise sheep farming. It was a lot of work and we barely made any money, so I ended up leaving it altogether,” says Pun Magar. Rassa Gurung is still supporting his family by selling sheep. He says he makes Rs400,000 a year, and the income goes to paying for his children’s education. “But my children are not interested in taking after me, they think it is too much work,” he adds.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024021517020_8a63eabfb7287bf84d8a5a9753b343eec25c4607ed67b8610316d40af46b16ab.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2024021517020_8a63eabfb7287bf84d8a5a9753b343eec25c4607ed67b8610316d40af46b16ab" data-rendition-name="original" width="1523" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate crisis ruins Himalayan pastoralists NT"> </figure>  Jore Pun also cites the new generation’s lack of interest as a reason for the decline of sheep farming. He says, “People started going to school. Now everyone is migrating. Sheep farming is a lot of work, after all.” There are still about 22,000 sheep in Rukum East, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development. Two years ago, there were nearly 800,000 sheep across the country. It is now down to 770,000. This decrease in sheep numbers has similarly affected the production of meat, down from 2,964 metric tons last year to 2,880 this year. Wool production has also decreased, from 584,000kg two years ago to 567,412 this year.&nbsp; Translated for the Nepali original published on himalkhabar.com

Climate crisis ruins Himalayan pastoralists

With all the hot air and greenwashing going on at COP28 in Dubai, it is clear that most delegates do not have the vision or the political will to grasp the implications of global climate breakdown. Whether it is petrostates or those heavily addicted to fossil fuels, the Conference of Parties feels more like a conference of partying as if there is no tomorrow. This must be what it must have felt like as the band struck up a polka on the tilting ballroom of the Titanic. The heat, flood, sea ice loss, sea surface temperature and hurricane wind velocity records that were broken in 2023 should be proof enough that incremental calibration of petroleum use will not help. The world (mainly India, China, Europe and North America) is burning twice as much fossil fuel as is needed to meet the outdated 1.5 degree goal.&nbsp; That was a target set in 2015 at the Paris COP21 for 2050. We are already reaching that level of warming now (graph). There are 100,000 delegates at COP28, it is being held in the world’s top petroleum exporting country, and its President is a climate science denier.&nbsp; The Loss and Damage fund that was announced with drumrolls at the start of COP last week has turned out to be a PR stunt. The fossil industry is strongly pushing geo-engineering solutions in Dubai that already have acronyms: Carbon capture and storage (CCS) as well as Solar Radiation Modification (SRM).&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/not-climate-smart">Not climate smart</a>, Sonia Awale A new report by Climate Analytics shows that CCS alone would be a ‘carbon bomb’ because of the energy required to capture and store CO2. The worst polluters are still pushing ‘phase-down’ instead of ‘phase-out’. And they think they are being clever by adding that they are for phasing out ‘unabated’ fossil fuels. This is COP28’s newest buzzword: unabated. Unabated means CO2 from burning fossil fuels is released directly into the atmosphere. The biggest emitters are now qualifying their targets by saying they will phase out just unabated fossil fuels. This &nbsp;semantic gymnastics ignores that carbon capture scale-up is unproven, and pumping sulphur aerosols into the stratosphere will destroy the ozone layer. The bottom line is that fossil fuel exporters and high per capita users do not want to reduce their carbon footprints. If they cannot agree on accelerated phaseout targets, one-third of Bangladesh will be submerged by ocean expansion, and two-thirds of Nepal's remaining Himalayan glaciers will be gone during this century.&nbsp; We do not want to keep saying ‘we told you so’, but ever since the COP3 cop-out after Kyoto in 1997, journalists have been writing the same editorials verbatim over and over again.&nbsp; A site search on the Nepali Times home page during COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, or COP17 in Durban in 2011 shows that we have been arguing that decarbonisation was necessary to save Nepal’s economy, and it is something we can manage ourselves.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/loss-and-damage-as-a-common-climate-cause">Loss and Damage as a Common Climate Cause</a>, Naveeda Khan In an editorial titled ‘The Right Climate for Change’ in the 9-15 December 2011 edition of Nepali Times ahead of the Durban summit, we wrote 12 years ago this week:  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231207111256_e106bd1545d27d75297cc4f28ee983bed82c5e4aa1749b5b708aeaae5733672f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20231207111256_e106bd1545d27d75297cc4f28ee983bed82c5e4aa1749b5b708aeaae5733672f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1054" loading="lazy" alt="Editorial 12 years ago"> </figure>  ‘The Nepal delegation is (in Durban) in force with a 30-member delegation. Developed countries say they can no longer afford to clean up the carbon they have pumped into the atmosphere since the industrial age, backing down from pledges made at Kyoto to help poorer countries mitigate the effects of climate change.&nbsp; For smaller Asian countries like Nepal, the issue is different. Whether we switch to renewables or not is not going to save the planet, but it can save us. Nepal's increasing dependence on fossil fuels is certain to take this country down the path of economic ruin. Nepal's petroleum imports from India grew three-fold in the last five years, and we don't have money to pay for it anymore. As we have argued in this space before, Nepal's balance of payments gap with India is only going to grow in future making us even more dependent on the southern neighbour. The solution is right under our noses. Making the switch to a hydropower-based economy is both the short-and long-term solution. We can give speeches until we are blue in the face in Durban about how the western countries should compensate us for our melting glaciers, or to help us adapt and/or mitigate, but if we don't have a plan to wean this country away from fossil fuels we might as well forget about it. We need to ensure that future generations of Nepalis (50 million of us by 2030) will inherit a country that is self-sufficient in domestically-generated renewable energy to meet their transportation, industrial and household needs. Maybe we should have just sent the minister to Durban to deliver his speech, and the rest of the delegation should have stayed home to plan for the future.’ Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/fossil-fuels-poison-air">Fossil fuels poison air</a>

Unabated greenwashing at COP28

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal was in Dhangadi on Friday to inaugurate the Sudur Paschim Festival. Dirgha Raj Upadhyay interviewed him on behalf of Nepali Times.&nbsp; Nepali Times: In your <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/not-climate-smart">speech at COP28</a> in Dubai last week, you said Nepal was suffering from climate injustice. What did you mean by that? Prime Minister Dahal: Nepal is bearing the brunt of the impact of the climate crisis even though we are responsible for negligible amounts of carbon per capita. Nepal isn’t just suffering injustice, it is gross injustice. I put that across clearly at the climate summit, and I put across that this injustice has to end. Developing countries like Nepal are having to deal with climate breakdown because of historical emissions by richer countries. As a result, our glaciers are receding, landslides, floods and other natural disasters are becoming more intense and frequent. There are financial and technical obstacles to adapting to, and mitigating climate change. It was my argument that those responsible for emissions should be compensating those who are suffering loss and damage. As for Nepal’s part, I reiterated our commitment to the Paris Agreement targets and our goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2045.&nbsp; Nepal had a prominent presence at COP28 side events with Water Resource Minister Shakti Basnet, Urban Development Minister Sita Gurung and other members of the delegation taking part. We were successful in drawing international attention to the impact of the climate crisis on the Nepal Himalaya.&nbsp; How is your government going to deal with the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/axiata-may-find-breaking-up-hard-to-do">Ncell stake sale</a> controversy?&nbsp; It was highly unusual that a Rs30 billion company like Ncell should be sold for Rs7 billion. It does not make sense. We are seriously concerned about this, and the government is trying to get to the bottom of this. We will take appropriate action after the investigation results come out. Citizens and businesses across the country, including here in Sudur Paschim, are seriously affected by the current economic crisis. How long will this <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/remittonomics-and-conflict">stagnation</a> continue? The government is aware of the hardships being faced by ordinary citizens, and there are signs that the economic situation is on the mend. The country will soon return to normal, and the government is wholly committed to making that happen.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231209061236_befcaf3bbef0999c1c469bcf1465c14fe37fe9d9b30e3657afa6787bc9b05534.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20231209061236_befcaf3bbef0999c1c469bcf1465c14fe37fe9d9b30e3657afa6787bc9b05534" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Dirgha Upadhyay interviewing PM Dahal NT"> <figcaption>Dirgha Upadhyay interviewing PM Dahal in Dhangadi on Friday.</figcaption> </figure>  Sudur Paschim Province has always been <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/epicentre-of-two-disasters-in-west-nepal">neglected by the state</a>. That has not changed after Nepal became a federal republic. You are right, there was neglect in the past which kept the Sudur Paschim back. But this province is my priority. I am committed to allocating the needed budget for this province’s development and prosperity, which is directly linked to connectivity. Nepal will not develop and prosper until Sudur Paschim Province develops and prospers. Under my leadership, for example, Geta Hospital will also be a medical college. Dasrath Chand Health Science University will soon be the first health science university in Nepal and will put Sudur Paschim Province on the map.&nbsp; Many <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/the-sun-rises-in-nepal-s-far-west">infrastructure projects in the Far West</a> that could make the whole country take a big leap forward like Pancheswar, West Seti, Karnali Chisapani have seen no progress. What are you doing about them? We have announced that we are going ahead with the 10,000MW Chisapani project that will have historic importance for Sudur Paschim and Karnali Provinces. There has been progress in the much-delayed DPR for Pancheswar. The government has signed an agreement with India’s NHPC for the construction of the West Seti dam, and hopefully work will begin soon. In addition, we have started work on the dry port in Dodhara-Chandani, and we believe this will be a boost to the economy of Sudur Paschim Province, and indeed of Nepal. The provincial government and local MPs from Kanchanpur are also pushing for this.&nbsp; But the first order of business for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/putting-nepal-on-the-right-track">connectivity</a> is roads. Yet the Darchula-Tinkar-Taklakot and the Bajhang-Urai-Taklakot road construction is going very slow. How will we ever develop? Yes, the construction of both the roads you mentioned is going very slow indeed. I am worried about it. I will find out whether it is a delay in the release of the necessary budget and if so what is the reason for that. Connecting Taklakot is my priority.&nbsp;

“Nepal suffering gross climate injustice”

Countries are watering down commitments for fossil fuel phase-out at COP28 in Dubai, and this means future infrastructure in the Himalaya will be at greater risk of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/lost-and-damaged">climate-induced disasters</a>, making them more expensive to build. The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/sikkim-flood-is-warning-to-nepal">Sikkim disaster</a> this year and the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-valley-suffers-quadruple-disaster">flood that damaged the Melamchi project in 2021</a> are signs of calamities to come. The accelerated melting of Himalayan ice means the disasters will have trans-boundary origins and impact, needing countries to cooperate in early warning and mitigation. An outburst flood from the South Lhonak glacial lake in Sikkim in October swept away a 1,200MW hydroelectric plant, bridges and highways, amounting to over $2 billion in damage. A massive debris flow in 2021 knocked out the Melamchi water supply scheme, Nepal’s most costly infrastructure project. Both disasters were triggered by cloudbursts on moraines already destabilised by melted permafrost. There are similar mega projects being built along the Arun and Marsyangdi rivers with identical risks. At the beginning of COP28 last week, hosts UAE announced with much fanfare the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/loss-and-damage-as-a-common-climate-cause">Loss and Damage</a> Fund to compensate countries for climate-induced disasters. But the $700 million pledged so far is a mere 0.2% of the estimated $400 billion developing countries need annually to deal with climate disasters. “After rejecting the Loss and Damage mechanism for decades, developed countries are finally committing money, but it is a drop in the ocean,” environmental campaigner Bhushan Tuladhar told us from Dubai, where he is attending a COP after 20 years. “With 100,000 delegates, it’s got bigger but we are still discussing the same things, it’s quite frustrating. What we do the rest of the year is more important, interactions need to be turned into action,” he added. In his speech at COP28 last week, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal called the climate crisis “an utter injustice” to countries like Nepal. But just before he flew off to Dubai, Dahal called for an amendment to Nepal’s Forest Act to make it easier to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/guest-editorial/fight-or-flight">fell forests for infrastructure</a>. Nepal’s forestry target is at risk, and the country has failed to meet its goals on<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/1-step-forward-2-steps-back-in-nepal"> electric transport</a>. At the rate petroleum imports are growing, we are off-track to meet our national net-zero commitment by 2045. This makes Nepal’s moral case for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/justice-delayed-justice-denied-byrx8a1c">Loss and Damage compensation</a> weaker. “Given the increased risk of climate change in the region, we need new technical know-how to redesign Himalayan infrastructure for our future projects so that they are resilient to climate disasters,” admits Kenichi Yokoyama, who heads the South Asia Department of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Yokoyama oversaw the Melamchi Project when he was ADB’s Nepal Country Director from 2012-2017. Melamchi is currently undergoing costly repairs to the tunnel intake to reduce the risk from future floods. On Wednesday in Dubai, ADB Vice-President Themes Fatima Yasmin and World Bank Vice-President for South Asia Martin Raiser announced a collaboration on the proposed Upper Arun and Dudh Koshi hydropower projects. Nepal’s installed capacity is reaching 3,000MW, and projects under construction will double this in the next three years.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231208041216_d8477bb1e1b0a1bcf1766c34dc52380db3d85779650133b916e47c97b24a6570.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20231208041216_d8477bb1e1b0a1bcf1766c34dc52380db3d85779650133b916e47c97b24a6570" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Not climate smart NT"><figcaption>Photo: GOPEN RAI</figcaption></figure>  Many of these projects are being built in series along river basins like the Arun, Bhote Kosi and Marsyangdi. Experts say they need thorough risk assessments that take into account <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-nepal-ignore-climate-crisis-in-river-talks">extreme weather events</a>, geological vulnerabilities, and potential cascading effects. “We need to incorporate climate-resilient design features, such as flexible structures and early warning systems,” says economist Barsha Dharel who specialises in climate-responsive infrastructure. She adds: “The additional safeguards should be paid for by a combination of national budgets, private sector financing, multilateral and bilateral funds and partnerships that share insurance and risk financing to cover potential Loss and Damage for infrastructure that is more climate resilient.” Other experts say large expensive infrastructure was always incompatible with fragile Himalayan geology, and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/kathmandu-s-polycrisis">climate-induced risk</a> has made them more vulnerable. Water expert Madhukar Upadhyay argues that smaller decentralised projects are more cost-effective, would spread the risk and can be built and repaired locally. “We have rivers with some of the highest sediment loads in the world and given unpredictable high-intensity short-duration precipitation here, when it rains it pours,” explains Upadhyay. “But our infrastructure design is more suitable for temperate climates.” Indeed, the increased danger from future climate disasters is not just to infrastructure but also to the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-climate-crisis-is-a-water-crisis-in-the-himalaya">livelihoods of Himalayan peoples</a> from extreme weather. Capping global average temperature at 1.5°C above industrial levels by 2050 was already too hot, but the world already reached near that level of warming this year. Worse, the Himalaya heats up 0.7°C more than the plains because of what scientists call the ‘altitude effect’. The Himalaya is the source of water for 2 billion Asians downstream. The region is a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/we-have-not-respected-the-fragility-of-the-himalaya">climate and geopolitical hotspot</a>, which is making it difficult for countries bordering the mountains to collaborate. China has become a global leader in renewable energy with over 2564.05 GW of total renewable power installation but is still investing in coal power. China has produced 8 million electric vehicles in the past 12 months. India has committed to increasing its share of non-fossil electricity generation capacity to 50% by 2030, and converting 30% of all vehicles to battery power by 2030. But it is also increasing its thermal power generation. India and China are both members of the Kathmandu-based <a href="https://www.icimod.org">International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)</a> which marked its 40th anniversary this week ahead of International Mountain Day on 11 December. For ICIMOD Director General Pema Gyamtsho from Bhutan, there is no alternative to cooperation on a Himalayan scale to cope with future climate calamities. He told us: “Emissions from fossil fuels as well as the benefits of clean energy transcend national boundaries. So, a collaborative approach among countries bordering the Himalaya is a must.”

Sonia Awale

Not climate smart

With weather records being broken planetwide, the COP28 climate summit in Dubai this month is being ridiculed as a greenwash even before it begins. The UAE is the world’s fifth <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-greenwashing-in-glasgow">biggest</a> exporter of refined petroleum, and the president of the conference is the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC).
There is an even bigger irony: Expo City in Dubai is being readied for the conference 30 November-12 December by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/gulf-workers-need-protection-from-heat">migrant workers from Nepal </a>and other South Asian countries labouring outdoors in 42°C heat.
“Greenwashing, that is exactly what it is going to be,” says Shilshila Acharya of Avni Center for Sustainability in Kathmandu. “Every day we are bombarded with one dire projection after another which needs emergency action, but we now have oil barons leading climate talks.”
She adds: “COPs have become a necessary evil but having this summit in the UAE sends the wrong message. The fossil fuel industry will obviously protect its own interests. We know the problems, we know the solutions but we do not have the right people in decision-making positions.”
In September, the human rights group <a href="https://fairsq.org">FairSquare</a> found evidence of Asian and African migrants working outdoors in excessive heat and humidity despite laws prohibiting it when the wet-bulb temperature exceeds 25°C.
Humans can handle wet-bulb temperatures up to 35°C for a limited time, but above that the body can no longer effectively cool itself via perspiration. Most Gulf countries have summer daytime curfew hours, but FairSquare found migrants working at the COP28 conference site even when the wet-bulb temperature reached 33°C.
Similar charges were made ahead of the 2022 Qatar World Cup when South Asian migrant workers were similarly made to work outdoors building football stadiums <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/my-uncle-died-in-qatar">with many fatalities</a>.
Nepal and other South Asian nations hope that the Dubai summit will take steps to set up the Loss and Damage Fund to help cope with <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/lost-and-damaged">climate-induced disasters</a>. But the Biden administration has outright rejected it, and other industrialised countries are not too keen.
In July, COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber said the summit would fast-track phase out of fossil fuels, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/justice-delayed-justice-denied-byrx8a1c">push climate finance</a>, and allow climate activists access.
Bangladeshi climate scientist Saleemul Huq was a strong proponent of the Loss and Damage Fund, but passed away suddenly this week in Dhaka. In an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/01/climate-destruction-rich-countries-cop28">op-ed printed posthumously in the Guardian</a> 1 November and co-authored by Farhana Sultana of Syracuse University, he wrote: ‘The fossil fuel industry continues to produce, maintain and benefit from greenhouse gas emissions, and must fundamentally change its business model. Meanwhile, greater efforts by local governments, civic groups and nonprofits remain crucial.’
Indeed, even while there is not much hope for action from the climate jamboree in Dubai, most climate action happens at the local level. Countries like Nepal do not have time to wait around for outside help to cope with disasters like the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/sikkim-flood-is-warning-to-nepal">Sikkim glacial flood </a>that are sure to be more frequent.
However, besides paying lip service like during the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/he-came-he-saw-he-left">visit by UN Secretary-General António Guterres</a> this week, Nepal’s leaders show little inclination to act on climate preparedness with adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Instead of developing climate-smart infrastructure, leaders have green-lit ecologically and economically harmful projects like the $6.7 billion <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/guest-editorial/fight-or-flight">Nijgad airport</a>. Meanwhile, much needed upgrades of existing highways and transmission lines face costly delays.
The draft Electricity Bill does not give enough priority to increase domestic consumption of surplus hydropower for Nepal’s energy transition, and instead emphasises power exports to India. For this, transmission lines and substations need urgent upgrades.
Both China and India have announced that they will stop manufacturing diesel and petrol vehicles by 2030. Nepal will be forced to go <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/1-step-forward-2-steps-back-in-nepal">all-electric </a>in six years, and we might as well be prepared.
In the past year, Nepal imported 2,000 electric 4-wheelers and 700 two-wheelers, reducing petrol and diesel consumption by more than 20,000 litres daily. In fact, by cutting just 10% of its LPG, diesel and petrol imports Nepal can save $260 million a year.
“Transportation, cooking, irrigation and industries are four clear pathways for a green transition in Nepal,” explains environmentalist Anil Chitrakar.
He adds: “We need to promote electric vehicles, but not everyone drives. However, all 30 million Nepalis have to eat, so subsidising rice cookers and electric stoves would reduce LPG use. Surplus electricity can be diverted to industries through dedicated feeders.”
In the current climate, investing in expensive cascade hydropower projects on rivers like the Arun exposes them to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting">glacial lake floods </a>like the Sikkim disaster. Energy experts propose diversifying Nepal’s renewable energy mix to include solar, wind and biogas.
Photovoltaic costs have plunged even further this year, and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-roof-is-the-limit">solar plants</a> are faster and cheaper to build. Industrial-scale biogas plants and waste-to-energy projects would also solve the problem of waste management.
“Irrigation pumps just in the Tarai consume 200MW of power. We can easily power them with solar panels and biogas can be upscaled again,” adds Chitrakar. “Nepal has proven solutions. We just need the political will to push them.”

Fossil Fools

As those of us in mountainous regions have witnessed, even a rise of 1.5°C is too hot.
It is too hot for the glaciers and permafrost, which are melting at <a href="https://hkh.icimod.org/hi-wise/ice/" target="_blank">an unprecedented rate</a>, whilst changing snowfall, snowmelt and avalanches are becoming more unpredictable. It is too hot for our ecosystems, our food and water sources, and for our people. The ensuing impacts of food and water security will impact one-quarter of humanity living downstream.
With this crisis upon us, it is vital that regions of the world sharing similar challenges come together to also share knowledge, experience and solutions. The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), which works for the eight countries of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH), and the Arctic Centre of the University of Lapland jointly held the first ever Inter-Polar Conference on 6-9 September in Kathmandu.
The Arctic polar region encompasses the Arctic Ocean, adjacent seas, and parts of Canada, Denmark, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States. The Himalaya is sometimes referred to as the ‘Third Pole’ as it contains the largest area of permanent ice cover outside of the polar regions. It spans Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan.
Despite both the Arctic and the Himalaya experiencing a thawing cryosphere – frozen water at the earth’s surface including glacier, lake and river ice, permafrost and snow – these two regions have traditionally been considered separately.
The Inter-Polar Conference was held in collaboration with the UArctic Chair in Arctic Legal Research and Education, and Law Thematic Network, sought to unite representatives from the polar regions, and to serve as a networking platform to share commonalities, links, and differences, especially concerning geo-political, socio-cultural, environmental, and legal aspects.&nbsp;
ICIMOD drew on its substantial experience as a regional and international mediator to bring together policymakers from mountain regions to drive forward change.
The overarching message from this pioneering conference demonstrated the importance and power of global – and regional – cooperation and collaboration when dealing with the triple planetary crisis of climate change, pollution and biodiversity loss.
Representatives and researchers from the Himalaya-Hindu Kush learnt of the specific experience and history of the Arctic Council, which was set up in 1996 to understand environmental challenges and preserve the Arctic environment while promoting sustainable development, and to address issues of climate adaptation and resilience. It has since evolved to establish institutional and governmental mechanisms for sharing knowledge and scientific findings.
The conference’s keynote speakers sharing their insights on critical issues facing our polar regions included Timo Koivurova from Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Akhilesh Gupta, Senior Adviser at the Department of Science and Technology Secretary, Science and Engineering Research Board, India, and Aisha Khan, Chief Executive of the Civil Society Coalition for Climate Change (CSCCC) in Pakistan.
The rich networking event sparked a series of interdisciplinary discussions with the aim of developing creative solutions, not least charting a clear roadmap for the Himalaya Hindu Kush to launch its own Regional Institutional Mechanism for the Third Pole.
A rise of 1.5°C is already too hot for the planet. As the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Arctic?src=hashtag_click" target="_blank">Arctic</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ThirdPole?src=hashtag_click" target="_blank">Third Pole</a> thaw, we need global unity to combat <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ClimateChange?src=hashtag_click" target="_blank">climate change</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/AirPollution?src=hashtag_click" target="_blank">air pollution</a>, and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/biodiversity?src=hashtag_click" target="_blank">biodiversity</a> loss. The Inter-Polar Conference was a crucial step towards building a shared knowledge network for positive change. We're joining forces and pushing for faster, ambitious emissions cuts to <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SaveOurSnow?src=hashtag_click" target="_blank">save our snow</a>s.
<h2>Three Poles</h2>
“The Arctic, as the Hindu Kush Himalaya, has seen its share of history. It is a place that connects everything together. Some years ago, we said the climate change in the Arctic is two times faster than the global average, then we said three times faster, then four. If we lose the Arctic, we lose the globe.”&nbsp;
Markku Heikkila, the Arctic Centre, University of Lapland 
 
“As we approach the critical 2030 deadline of limiting Global Warming to 1.5°C, the cryosphere, in particular, does not grant us the luxury of time. We must view it through a holistic lens that encompasses not only scientific considerations but also addresses the profound social, economic, and ecological impacts it entails.”
Aisha Khan, Civil Society Coalition for Climate Change, Pakistan 
 
“The Arctic is changing faster than any other region in the world affecting people's lives, not only in the Arctic but globally. We need to work together across the regions to be able to adopt and find solutions to save our snow and people's homelands.”
Kirsi Latola, University of the Arctic 
 
“Science and technology play a crucial role in building resilience against climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalaya. It's imperative to establish robust mitigation and adaptation measures grounded in both indigenous and evidence-based knowledge.”
Akhilesh Gupta, Science and Engineering Research Board, India 
 
“The science-driven approach of the Arctic Council has many benefits, empowering researchers and indigenous knowledge holders to actively shape inter-governmental policy decisions, ensuring that critical issues receive the attention and consideration they deserve.”&nbsp;
Timo Koivurova, Arctic Centre, University of Lapland
Pema Gymatsho is the Director General of the &nbsp;International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) in Kathmandu.

The Arctic meets the Himalaya

This June, monsoon rains brought freak floods to the mountains of Nepal while parts of the plains reeled from a severe water shortage. This has always been the story of the Himalaya: either too much water or too little. This contrast is now aggravated by the impact of the climate crisis. While flash floods ravaged eastern Nepal, destroying hydropower plants, wells dried out in the Tarai on the border with India amidst a prolonged drought affecting rice planting. The water table on both sides of the border has been going down due to over-extraction by deep tube wells as well as the destruction of the groundwater recharge areas of the Chure Range, the southernmost foothills of the Himalaya. The Chure is being ravaged by quarries, deforestation and population growth. However, this transboundary water crisis is absent from bilateral negotiations on river sharing between India and Nepal. Nepali Times columnist Chandra Kishore was the first to draw attention to the seriousness of the water crisis. He wrote in a page 1 report in this newspaper on 28 July: ‘The climate crisis is a water crisis, and access to water used to be determined by who bore deep wells for water. But even those with pumps do not have water, and the worst hit are the poorest families.’ Chandra Kishore has taken to social media to express his frustration that these important issues never seem to be on the political agenda in India or Nepal, and even less in conversations between the two governments. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/borderlines/grain-drain">Grain drain</a>, Chandra Kishore “Kathmandu listens a bit but doesn’t act, since the leadership is too busy dealing with India on how to stay on in power,” he says. “And Bihar’s voice rarely reaches Delhi.” The Indian state is currently governed by a party opposed to the BJP that rules India. Chandra Kishore’s frustration speaks to a wider failure by the Nepali government to prioritise domestic problems — from changes in the Himalayan water cycle and ecological destruction to a shortage of electricity grids – if they complicate or threaten economic ties with India. Up to 70% of the annual water flow in the Ganges River comes down from tributaries in Nepal — most of that in the four monsoon months. These Himalayan rivers are central to the lives and livelihoods of millions of citizens in India and Nepal. Poor water management in both countries with poorly designed flood control embankments and infrastructure, insufficient groundwater recharge, and over-pumping have worsened the effect of weather extremes due to the climate crisis. Despite these factors, high-profile bilateral discussions between India and Nepal usually overlook climate change and other environmental concerns. In 2014, the countries jointly issued a 35-point press release on Narendra Modi’s first prime ministerial visit to Nepal that did not even mention climate change. During the next four visits Modi has made, the climate crisis has never come up.&nbsp; Rather than talking about the vulnerabilities of their shared river systems, India and Nepal use these meetings solely to explore the potential to generate hydropower. Hydro-electricity makes up 96% of Nepal’s installed electricity capacity, and exporting power to India could help Nepal reduce its trade deficit. During Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s visit to India in June, a long-term energy trade agreement was finalised. Prime Minister Modi confirmed in a joint press conference that India would import 10,000MW of electricity in the next decade. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/balance-of-power">Balance of Power</a>, Sonia Awale  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023082519080_fddd55cd2af19d62b216471a41a205703cfb10869e98c84b98e2c17dc38846fa.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2023082519080_fddd55cd2af19d62b216471a41a205703cfb10869e98c84b98e2c17dc38846fa" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Dam site of Upper Karnali hydropower "> <figcaption>Dam site of Upper Karnali hydropower (900MW) in Daab in Dailekh district. The Indian company GMR is in the final stage to start construction of the project.</figcaption> </figure>  Experts say that India’s main concern is not electricity but water, and its planners are fully aware of the impact climate change will have on future water availability. But Indian officials hide the real agenda by talking only about electricity. Nepal’s former water resources minister Dipak Gyawali told The Third Pole: “To India, climate change is a foreign agenda and for Nepal, it’s something to talk about to be nice, especially with western countries.” While Nepal negotiates with India to try to export more hydroelectricity, many within Nepal do not have adequate or reliable supply of power. The Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) has been trying to unsuccessfully increase domestic consumption, and one reason is frequent power cuts even during the monsoon. Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) spokesperson Suresh Bahadur Bhattarai says the installed hydropower generation in the rainy season is 2,800MW, while peak demand hovers at 1,800MW. There is surplus power, but there are not enough transmission lines to evacuate power. Energy experts say there has been too much focus on electricity generation and not enough on transmission lines. Says former head of NEA Mukesh Kafle: “As a result, several hydro projects haven’t been able to dispatch generated energy to the grid and, with increasing demand, local distributions systems aren’t able to handle the load.”&nbsp; Most of Nepal’s hydropower is generated by private investors, and one such is the Super Dordi in Lamjung district. The Dordi River is in full spate because of heavy rains this month, but the scheme with an installed capacity of 54MW is only generating 10MW.&nbsp; Says Super Dordi’s Ganesh Karki: “If we had a transmission line, we could run at full capacity.” The reason for power outages this monsoon is not because there is not enough electricity, but because inadequate transmission lines means the power generated cannot be distributed to the load centres, leading to frequent tripping. &nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-india-power-play">Nepal-India power play</a>, Ramesh Kumar  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023082519080_446338cad11f4dedee1be6949aa3b422c0c31b6abda6b84f12abdb2a2bb1f9a2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="2023082519080_446338cad11f4dedee1be6949aa3b422c0c31b6abda6b84f12abdb2a2bb1f9a2" data-rendition-name="original" width="897" height="605" loading="lazy" alt="Hydropower graph"> </figure>  Addition of vital transmission lines was held up because of the delays in the ratification of the US-funded MCC scheme, as well as local obstruction to putting up poles and obtaining necessary permits to clear forests. “The outages are going to get worse if things remain the same,” the NEA’s Bhattarai warned.&nbsp; The Independent Power Producers Association of Nepal (IPPAN) would prefer to sell power domestically, but since it is difficult to increase power demand within Nepal and meet it with enough transmission lines, exporting to India is the only option. Nepal’s Department of Electricity Development has issued 241 construction licenses for generating more than 8,820MW. And there are hydropower construction applications awaiting approval that would generate more than 8,680MW. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Water Resources, Energy and Irrigation is working on a 10-year national hydropower strategy, but says it is not yet ready to share details. Not everybody is as excited about selling electricity to India. Gyawali thinks such interest in Nepali hydropower is being driven not by market forces, but by the Indian government’s wish to exercise strategic control over Nepal. India only imports hydroelectricity from Nepal that does not have Chinese investment or involvement. Indian companies have replaced China as the country’s principal investors in the hydropower sector. India is now involved in projects generating 4,000MW and a further 1,100MW was signed off between Dahal and Modi in June. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-geopolitics-of-nepal-s-water-and-electricity">The geopolitics of Nepal’s water and electricity</a>, Ramesh Kumar  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023082519080_d02f8ca4827333387eeda9e6b08170f6224d166be3de89decd8e6c9e9316cdcc.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="2023082519080_d02f8ca4827333387eeda9e6b08170f6224d166be3de89decd8e6c9e9316cdcc" data-rendition-name="original" width="1266" height="856" loading="lazy" alt="Hydropower graph"> </figure>  River conservationists are also worried about the domestic cost of developing hydroelectricity for India. Megh Ale, president of the Nepal River Conservation Trust, says: “Imagine what will happen to these rivers if you just think about electricity. In the last two decades, we have dammed almost all our major river systems except the Karnali. We should also think about ecology and ecosystems while not undermining the need for electricity. The current madness will be costly.” Several studies have warned that Nepal’s dams have already impacted aquatic biodiversity. A study by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in 2018 says: ‘Damming of rivers has had huge environmental costs with serious and irreversible impacts, including a rapid decline in the population of many fish species.’ Basanta Raj Adhikari, the director of Tribhuvan University’s Centre for Disaster Studies says that Indian investment in Nepali hydropower is reason enough to take climate change into account: “It is going to impact India’s own investment. Extreme rainfall in June in the hills of eastern Nepal washed away several hydro projects.” The Institute for Social and Environmental Transition (ISET) in Kathmandu released a report in June on transboundary rivers that originate in the Chure Range. It highlights that the various Nepali-Indian agreements governing these rivers are obsolete and do not cover sustainable water management, participation, or recognise emerging risks. “It’s basically an underestimation of the scale of the problem,” says Ajaya Dixit of ISET.&nbsp; A June 2023 study by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) in Kathmandu says the availability of water in the Himalaya is expected to peak in mid-century, driven by accelerated glacial melt, after which it is projected to decline. It is not just Nepal, where the impacts of the climate crisis are being felt. This month’s devastating floods in northern India could also be a sign of worse to come. Climate change is going to have a geo-strategic impact because of how it will affect our rivers. But so far, the concern of experts and scientists is not reflected in bilateral and regional consultations on river sharing. &nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-precious-electricity-going-waste">Nepal’s precious electricity going waste</a>, Anita Bhetwal This version of the piece was originally published on The Third Pole under the Creative Commons license, and was written by Ramesh Bhushal, Nepal Editor at The Third Pole.

India, Nepal ignore climate crisis in river talks

Climate finance conversations are usually dominated by ways to fund switching to renewable energy, clean transportation and waste management. However, in the past few years there have been urgent calls to also finance adaptation, resilience, as well as loss and damage.&nbsp;
This is a much-needed shift as the impact of the climate crisis is being increasingly being felt worldwide, and the IPCC reports have been presenting more and more alarming scenarios year after year, so much so that reality has outpaced projections.
Public financing is often placed at the heart of finding funding to adapt and build resilience. The most notable example is the <a href="https://www.adaptation-fund.org/about/" target="_blank">Adaptation Fund</a> which has allocated over $850 million for projects and programs that help vulnerable communities in developing countries adjust to climate-induced impact.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/nepali-cities-must-champion-climate-action" target="_blank">Nepali cities must champion climate action</a>, Rastraraj Bhandari and Simone Weichenrieder
However, public financing alone is simply not enough to meet the increasing demand for adaptation and resilience finance. Presently, only <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/private-sector-climate-adaptation-finance" target="_blank">around 10% of overall climate finance</a> flows are allocated to climate adaptation even as the figure for developing countries needs to increase by 5 to 10 times. Within this, only <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/private-sector-climate-adaptation-finance" target="_blank">around 2% of adaptation finance</a> comes from the private sector such as corporations and institutional investors whereas 98% were from public sources.
Private sector engagement and financing in climate adaptation and resilience is imperative if the world is to stand any chance in tackling the climate crisis. This is particularly relevant in the Himalaya as the conversations around the Third Pole Process, spearheaded by the U.A.E government as the COP28 presidency, continue.
The <a href="https://www.arcticcircle.org/third-pole-process" target="_blank">Third Pole Process</a> has been labelled as a comprehensive effort to introduce the Arctic model of collaboration to the Third Pole region. The process is expected to be a sustained effort to define the challenge, to initiate research collaboration, and to help identify effective dissemination of information to enable political deliberations and policy-making. Although engaging the political establishments across the region will indeed be crucial, leaving out the private sector will be a missed opportunity for the Third Pole Process.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/green-is-the-colour-of-money-and-nature" target="_blank">Green is the colour of money and nature</a>, Angel Li
This is easier said than done. There are fundamental barriers to attracting private sector engagement in adaptation and resilience financing, given the challenges with private financial returns. However, this discourse is picking up globally and efforts are underway to mobilise private sector investments.
Innovating financing mechanisms such as through the use of guarantees, co-financing, de-risking and blended finance can definitely help <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/private-sector-climate-adaptation-finance" target="_blank">leverage the scarce public finance resources</a> to catalyse private sector finance.
Insurance companies can also play a key role as risk managers, risk carriers and investors. Traditionally, private insurers avoided insuring for disasters, in part because those who are insured are less likely to flood-proof their assets and only those at high risk of flooding will purchase insurance.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/turning-green-policies-into-greenbacks" target="_blank">Turning green policies into greenbacks</a>, Rastraraj Bhandari
Yet, with a growing insurance market, <a href="https://content.naic.org/cipr-topics/parametric-disaster-insurance#:~:text=The%20term%20parametric%20insurance%20describes,in%20a%20traditional%20indemnity%20policy." target="_blank">parametric insurance</a> and risk pooling may overcome these challenges. In addition, exposing the risk vulnerability of the private sector such as through mandatory climate risk assessment and disclosure requirements as regulatory measures may also increase private sector investments for their own long-term stability.
In addition to financing, the private sector also has access to innovative technologies, both digital and physical technologies, which is often a forgotten yet crucial detail. The Himalaya are home to global tech giants such as Baidu, Tencent, Infosys and Alibaba, who have <a href="https://www.himalayanwaterproject.org/post/tackling-climate-and-water-challenges-in-the-himalayas-using-ai" target="_blank">immense potential to contribute to the battle against climate change</a> not just by reducing their own operational footprint but also by developing, deploying and diffusing climate technologies, including with regards to adaptation and resilience.
The Third Pole Process can foster private sector engagement for adaptation and resilience in the Himalaya. Initiating a dialogue as well as research collaboration can be a key first step but it is imperative to ensure that such research is translated into evidence and impact-based action.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepal-can-lead-in-zero-carbon/" target="_blank">Nepal can lead in zero-carbon, </a>Nicola Pollitt
Outside of such multilateral processes, both national and sub-national governments also have a role in fostering private-sector engagement. Many of the countries in the Himalaya are making progress with greening their financial systems and creating guidelines for banks and financial institutions. Such efforts should also look into how adaptation and resilience can be incorporated in an otherwise climate mitigation-dominated space.
It is high time to scale both public and private finance for adaptation and resilience in the Himalaya, and only such coordinated efforts can ensure that the financing needs of the region are met in an inclusive manner.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-chance-to-green-its-budget/" target="_blank">Nepal’s chance to green its budget</a>, Kaustubh Dhital
Rastraraj Bhandari works on climate finance and carbon markets, and contributes regularly to Nepali Times on issues related to climate change.

Finding money to save the Third Pole

The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology has declared that the southwest monsoon entered eastern Nepal promptly on schedule, and will advance over the whole country in a week. This was a relief because weather models had suggested the onset of the rains would be delayed by at least 10 days. Let us hope simulations were also wrong about deficient rainfall this monsoon. News of the arrival of the rains could not have come sooner. So far, this June has been the hottest month on record in Nepal, with half of the country’s population mostly in the plains reeling under <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat">heat stress</a>. Wells had gone dry in parts of the Chure and Tarai, and ritual frog weddings were being performed for rain. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/it-is-getting-hotter-on-the-roof-of-the-world">It's getting hotten on the roof of the world</a>, Kunda Dixit This year’s El Niño effect should be a warning about things to come, as the ocean and atmosphere heat up globally. Here in Nepal, we must now broaden the scope of disaster planning beyond droughts, floods and landslides to lethal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/north-indian-heat-wave-hits-nepal">‘wet bulb’</a> combinations of temperature and humidity. In the next decades, unliveable heat waves in the plains could force mass <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/unthinkable-in-the-current-climate">migration of people to northern latitudes and higher altitudes</a>. For Nepal, this could mean a future reversal of population movement back from the plains to the mountains. But Nepal’s rulers cannot pass all the blame for chronic food insecurity on climate breakdown. The Karnali is food deficit because of decades of state neglect, and climate change-induced drought just puts farmers under added pressure. Crop failure due to lack of irrigation and agricultural input in turn will worsen malnutrition among children, and increase the push factor for outmigration of men. Not all disasters are sudden, Nepal must also prepare for slow-motion calamities like these. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/multimedia/tara-pariyar-s-karnali">Our coverage from Jumla</a> and Kalikot of Karnali Province in this edition shows how investment in rural irrigation can transform the lives of farmers, making them more resilient to face extreme weather. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/women-and-water">climate crisis is a water crisis</a>, and year-round access to water will improve food availability, raise household income, reduce drudgery for women, and allow Nepalis to adapt to climate change. It is common sense. Why didn’t we think of that before? The DHM and South Asian Climate Outlook Forum forecast normal to below-normal rainfall this year, and an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures across South Asia. Rainfall in western Nepal is expected to be 60% below normal, and 30% deficient in the rest of the country.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023061414068_a58db96050cb747bbcd4bf46e1507af613ea7bf0fa4700a0a4178da2e41130cd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="2023061414068_a58db96050cb747bbcd4bf46e1507af613ea7bf0fa4700a0a4178da2e41130cd" data-rendition-name="original" width="3300" height="1950" loading="lazy" alt="Monsoon 2023"><figcaption>Department of Meteorology and Hydrology has projected below-average rainfall this monsoon. </figcaption></figure>  But those are averages, and we also have to be prepared for cloudbursts of the kind that triggered the deadly <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/still-chasing-the-melamchi-mirage">Melamchi flood on 15 June 2021</a>. Robust early warning systems and real-time localised information systems are vital to save lives and infrastructure. Again, we cannot blame loss of life along settlements in flood-prone high-risk areas on the climate crisis. We cannot call them ‘natural disasters’ when the real culprit is bad planning and poor preparedness for calamities that are certain to happen. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-smarter-himalayan-infrastructure">Climate smarter HImalayan infrastructure</a>, Sonia Awale The rampant building spree of mega-infrastructure, primarily hydropower projects along Nepal’s major rivers, without proper Environmental Impact Assessment also spells disaster. So does <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/a-nation-built-on-sand">illegal extraction of riverbed products</a> along the Chure. But perhaps the most glaring example of environmental terrorism is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/don-t-just-blame-god-for-floods-and-landslides">haphazard road construction</a> triggering slope failure and disrupting water supply. There are things that are happening globally over which we have little control. The Paris Agreement to cap average global temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2050 is now dead in the water. Last week, CO2 concentration in the atmosphere hit a record 422ppm, and at this rate we are looking at an increase of 2°C or more in the coming decade. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-high-places">polar regions and the ice-caps of the Alps and the Himalaya </a>are already melting at unprecedented rates. New York experienced <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-is-the-air-in-bhaktapur-so-bad">air quality</a> worse than Kathmandu last week as Canadian wildfires sent smoke plumes across North America. Pakistan suffered catastrophic nationwide floods last year due to heavier than usual monsoon rains and melting glaciers. For us in Nepal, there is no option but to be prepared for what we know is coming. Rescue and relief after a disaster, as is often the case, is too late. Preparations for prevention for this monsoon should have started last winter. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/political-environment">Political environment</a>, Editorial A strong environmental protection strategy requires long-term vision and commitment, it needs politicians who think beyond immediately visible populist actions to boost vote banks. As with everything else in Nepal, the answer to disaster preparedness is a smarter and more accountable government. Sonia Awale

climate-crisis